Goal scoring at the 2018 FIFA World Cup after 11 games

Eleven games have been completed at the 2018 FIFA World Cup. Twenty-five goals have been scored.

Before the tournament started, I identified some naive priors for the consideration of when goals might be scored in fifteen minute time intervals in the group games.

Interval Prior
0-15m 0.10
16-30m 0.15
31-45m 0.15
46-60m 0.15
61-75m 0.20
76-90m 0.25

After 11 games my probability profile for when a goal will be scored is:

Interval Prior
0-15m 0.08
16-30m 0.16
31-45m 0.16
46-60m 0.24
61-75m 0.12
76-90m 0.24

The distribution of goals by half played is first half 0.40 and second half 0.60.

Photo Credit

Fifa world cup 2018 (Коля Саныч, CC BY-ND 2.0)

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