Eleven games have been completed at the 2018 FIFA World Cup. Twenty-five goals have been scored.
Before the tournament started, I identified some naive priors for the consideration of when goals might be scored in fifteen minute time intervals in the group games.
| Interval | Prior |
| 0-15m | 0.10 |
| 16-30m | 0.15 |
| 31-45m | 0.15 |
| 46-60m | 0.15 |
| 61-75m | 0.20 |
| 76-90m | 0.25 |
After 11 games my probability profile for when a goal will be scored is:
| Interval | Prior |
| 0-15m | 0.08 |
| 16-30m | 0.16 |
| 31-45m | 0.16 |
| 46-60m | 0.24 |
| 61-75m | 0.12 |
| 76-90m | 0.24 |
The distribution of goals by half played is first half 0.40 and second half 0.60.
Photo Credit
Fifa world cup 2018 (Коля Саныч, CC BY-ND 2.0)
