I have some naive prior probability estimates for when goals will be scored at the 2018 FIFA World Cup based on performances in 2014 and 2010.
I am using 15 minute intervals mindful of the additional time added to each half of play.
For the Group games:
| Interval | Prior |
| 0-15 | 0.10 |
| 16-30 | 0.15 |
| 31-45 | 0.15 |
| 46-60 | 0.15 |
| 61-75 | 0.20 |
| 76-90 | 0.25 |
For the Knockout games:
| Interval | Prior |
| 0-15 | 0.11 |
| 16-30 | 0.17 |
| 31-45 | 0.09 |
| 46-60 | 0.11 |
| 61-75 | 0.18 |
| 76-90 | 0.21 |
| 91-105 | 0.05 |
| 106-120 | 0.08 |
Photo Credit
The wait is finally over (@RaheemDanyaro, Twitter)
