The Quarter Finals are about to take place at the 2018 FIFA World Cup.
I have been using a naive Bayes approach to anticipate when goals might be scored in the knockout phase of the 2018 tournament.
I chose some priors from the outcomes of the 2010 and 2014 tournament knockout phases. The posteriors for these were:
My priors for 2018 were:
The posteriors for the Round of 16 were:
A comparison of Priors and Posteriors after Round of 16:
It will be interesting to see if this relationship changes in the forthcoming games … particularly in regard of extra time.