The first round of group games has concluded at the 2018 FIFA World Cup.
38 goals were scored in these 16 games.
Of these:
- Winning teams scored 24 goals.
- Losing teams scored 4 goals.
- There were 10 goals scored in drawn games.
The team that scored first did not lose in these 16 games.
The time intervals when these goals were scored were:
|
Time Interval (Minutes) |
Winner | Losing Team |
Drawn Game |
Totals |
| 0-15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 16-30 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 31-45 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 46-60 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 61-75 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 76-90 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
I have been following a naive Bayes approach to the probability of scoring in these time intervals.
| Time Interval (Minutes) | Prior to Tournament |
Posterior after Round 1 |
| 0-15 | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| 16-30 | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| 31-45 | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| 46-60 | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| 61-75 | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| 76-90 | 0.21 | 0.21 |
My probability priors for scoring by half (based on 2010 and 2014 World Cup performances) were:
- Score in first half: 0.40
- Score in second half: 0.60
My probability posteriors after Round 1 are: 0.36 and 0.64 respectively.
There have been 16 different referees in Round 1. Szymon Marciniak (Poland) is the only referee not to have given a yellow card in a game (Argentina v Iceland). There has been one red card (Carlos Sanchez, Colombia).
The median number of fouls per game in Round 1 was 28. The range of fouls was from 18 to 43.
During the first round of games, the median ball in play time has been 56 minutes (and as a median percentage 58%). The median length of games has been 96 minutes.
Tracking data suggests that three players covered >12000 metres in Round 1: Aleksandr Golovin (12706); Christian Erikson (12262); Iury Gazinsky (12240).
Photo Credit
Japan v Colombia (The Japan Times, Twitter)
