I noticed this tweet earlier today
Apropos nothing, if you're interested in the impact of managers on club performance, I found this paper simple, yet insightful (and with a couple of novel insights): https://t.co/23oxics7An pic.twitter.com/Gbz8Z8akqs
— Chris Anderson (@soccerquant) February 25, 2018
By coincidence, Ron Smith had sent me a link to the paper too. It is available online at this link.
The paper encouraged me to think about the data I have been collecting from the EPL.
I have been tracking the impact of the eight managerial changes in the EPL this season with a very basic ‘momentum’ metric. This indicates that, after week 28 of the season, Leicester has benefited most from a change (+3) whilst West Brom has struggled (-7).
My maps of routes to safety or relegation, in order of managerial changes, are:
Simon Gleave added a fascinating dimension to this conversation in his consideration of how many points are required to remain in the EPL.
He shared this graphic (14 February 2018) of the % chance of relegation this season: