The Impact of Managerial Change: EPL 2017-2018

I noticed this tweet earlier today

By coincidence, Ron Smith had sent me a link to the paper too. It is available online at this link.
The paper encouraged me to think about the data I have been collecting from the EPL.
I have been tracking the impact of the eight managerial changes in the EPL this season with a very basic ‘momentum’ metric. This indicates that, after week 28 of the season, Leicester has benefited most from a change (+3) whilst West Brom has struggled (-7).
My maps of routes to safety or relegation, in order of managerial changes, are:
Crystal Palace



West Ham

West Brom




Simon Gleave added a fascinating dimension to this conversation in his consideration of how many points are required to remain in the EPL.
He shared this graphic (14 February 2018) of the % chance of relegation this season:

Photo Credit

BFCvFCUM_ENPLPD_041114 (Matthew Wilkinson, CC BY-ND 2.0)



  1. It would be good to add a dimension to your analysis namely, firstly, ‘strategic context’ of each club in terms of maturity against a ‘health of the club’ model such as Sport Wizard(R) BIS or Building Integrated Success. Secondly, to examine the specific portfolio of the manager – leadership and style, strategy and governance, This could provide contextual intelligence to further measure progress and success and comparative progress and success. Happy to work with you on this, Keith.


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