Some Priors for the 2019-2020 Football Seasons in Europe

The 2019-2020 football seasons in Europe have started with Liverpool’s 4v1 win over Norwich in the English Premier League (link).

Last year, I looked at the scoring patterns in six European football leagues (English Premier League, Ligue 1, Bundesliga, Serie A, Eredivise and Primera). In total, I monitored 1875 games. These provide the basis for the priors leading into the 2019-2020 seasons.

Scoring First and Winning

Scored First and Did Not Lose

It will be interesting to see how the posteriors respond in 2019-2020. The Scored First and Did Not Lose Prior looks particularly robust. This prior is based upon a one goal lead. Even this indicator seems very stable. In only 9 of the 1875 games did the team that scored twice and led 2v0 lose (3 EPL, 1 Ligue 1, 1 Bundesliga, 3 Serie A, 1 Eredivisie, 0 Primera).

When Liverpool went 2v0 ahead against Norwich in the first game of the EPL season after 19 minutes (link), the probability of Norwich winning was in my estimate 0.005 in Europe and 0.008 in the EPL. Liverpool went ahead 3v0 in the 28th minute and at that stage no team in the previous season had come back to win from 0v3.

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