Game Outcomes: Losing After Leading

There are some interesting examples in the published data of teams that took the lead and then lost.

BBL 2019

The 2019 BBL Final between the Stars and Renegades looked to be heading to the Stars (link). An opening partnership of 93 between Ben Dunk (57) and Marcus Stoinis (39) appeared to establish a solid platform for victory after 12 overs. The data indicate the change that occurred:

Scoring First and Losing

Scoring first in football appears to have an importance for the game outcome. In eight leagues, the probabilities of scoring first and not losing are:

  • W League 86%
  • EPL 84%
  • Eredivisie 84%
  • Bundesliga 83%
  • Ligue 1 81%
  • Serie A 80%
  • Primera 78%
  • A League 72%

This season 145 games have been lost in these leagues by the team scoring first. Of these there have been 11 games in which a team led by two goals and lost.

Photo Credits

Renegades and Stars (Renegades)

Wolves v Man City (BBC)


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