Nine games have been played in the 2019 Asian Cup football tournament (link).
Before the tournament, I identified some naive probabilities about when goals would be scored in six time intervals in group games.
After nine games played, the relationship between the priors and posterior outcomes is:
As to what kind of tournament this is in relation to 2011 and 2015, after nine games in 2019 the relationship is:
I am interested in the performance of teams in the tournament with regard to their Elo rating. After 9 games, the higher Elo rated team has not lost 78% of the games played. The two higher Elo rated team to lose were Australia (against Jordan) and Thailand (against India). Australia was rated 35th and Jordan 97th. Thailand 113, India 155.
