Ritchie King, Allison McCann and Matthew Conlen have produced their World Predictions today. They are using ESPN’s Soccer Power Index to calculate their outcomes. Their model has used 10,000 simulations as a starting point. Like other groups providing rich data about the World Cup, Ritchie, Allison and Matthew will update their model after each match.
Nate Silver has written a detailed account of the methodology used by FiveThirtyEight to build their model of the World Cup.
It is interesting to note that the FiveThityEight model picks 7 of the 8 top Elo ranked teams in each group to win their group. The exception is Group F in which Uruguay qualifies in first place ahead of England. In Group B the model promotes Chile above the Netherlands (which inverts the Elo Ratings).
The model suggests a final four of Brazil, Argentina, Germany and Spain.