In my analysis of the 2010 FIFA World Cup and the 2011 Asian Football Cup I looked at the probability of not losing after scoring the first goal. These are the summary data for both tournaments.
In the 2010 World Cup:
In the 64 games played three teams scored first and lost. Nigeria scored first in Game 19 of the tournament. Greece won the game 2-1. It is interesting to note that: Greece was higher in the FIFA ranking; Nigeria had a player sent off in the 33rd minute; both of Greece’s goals were scored after the sending off. In Game 26 Cameroon scored first. Denmark won the game 2-1. Denmark was lower in the FIFA rankings than Cameroon. Both the teams to have scored first and lost in the Group Stage of the tournament were from the African continent and were been beaten by European teams. Cameroon was beaten twice by lower ranked teams (Japan and Denmark). Brazil scored first in Game 57 and lost 1-2 to Netherlands in the quarter final game. Brazil was the higher ranked team.
In the Asian Football Cup 2011:
64 goals were scored at the 2011 Asian Cup in 24 Group games. The team that scored first won in 18 games, drew in 3 games and lost in 2 games. There was one 0-0 draw (DPR Korea v United Arab Emirates). The exceptions were: Iraq scored first against Iran and lost; Syria scored first against Jordan and lost.
26 goals were scored in 8 Knockout games. The team that scored first won 6 games, drew 1 game and lost 1 game (Qatar scored first against Japan and lost). One of the Knockout Games was decided by penalties. Japan defeated South Korea 3-0 in the penalty shoot out. Japan scored the first penalty and won the game.
Looking at Other Football Codes: Australian Rules, Rugby League and Rugby Union
The 2011 season in Australian provides an opportunity to look at scoring patterns in Australian Rules, Rugby League and Rugby Union Football codes. This season I am interested in the scoring gap that can be closed.
As of 11 April:
These three football codes provide an excellent opportunity to compare the number of occasions when teams come from behind. I intend to post these data after each round of the respective competitions.
Honk, Honk, Honk