#AsianCup2019 after nine games

Nine games have been played in the 2019 Asian Cup football tournament (link).

Before the tournament, I identified some naive probabilities about when goals would be scored in six time intervals in group games.

After nine games played, the relationship between the priors and posterior outcomes is:

As to what kind of tournament this is in relation to 2011 and 2015, after nine games in 2019 the relationship is:

I am interested in the performance of teams in the tournament with regard to their Elo rating. After 9 games, the higher Elo rated team has not lost 78% of the games played. The two higher Elo rated team to lose were Australia (against Jordan) and Thailand (against India). Australia was rated 35th and Jordan 97th. Thailand 113, India 155.

When will goals be scored in the group games at #AsianCup2019?

The group games are about to start at the 2019 Asian Cup football tournament (link).

I have used goal scoring data from the group games of the previous two Asian Cup tournaments to derive some naive priors for when goals will be scored in the group stage of the tournament.

It will be interesting to see the early trends in goal scoring. The previous goal scoring patterns (2015, 2011) were:

My data from goal scoring in 2015 and 2011 are:

Time Interval20152011
0-15 minutes0.100.19
16-30 minutes0.130.17
31-45 minutes0.250.19
46-60 minutes0.160.14
61-75 minutes0.160.11
76-90 minutes0.200.21

Elo ratings and FIFA rankings prior to #AsianCup2019

The most recent Elo World Football Ratings were published on 3 January 2019 (link) and the FIFA Rankings on 20 December 2018 (link).

At the start of the 2019 Asian Cup (link), the ratings and rankings of the teams in the competition are:

South Korea2353
Saudi Arabia6269
UA Emirates8579
North Korea100109

In the 2015 Asian Cup tournament, the performances against Elo ratings were:

  • Higher Elo rated team scores first and wins: 22 games (69% of games played)
  • Higher Elo rated team does not score first and wins: 2 games (6%)
  • Higher Elo rated team scores first and loses: 3 games (9%)
  • Higher Elo rated team does not score first and loses: 5 games (16%)

I am going to monitor performance against Elo rating in 2019 and will start with these naive priors:

  • 0.69 Higher Elo rated team scores first and wins
  • 0.75 Higher Elo rated team wins
  • 0.25 Higher Elo rated team loses

The tournament starts this evening with the United Arab Emirates v Bahrain Group A game in Abu Dhabi (link).