Twelve games have been played in the 2019 Asian Cup football tournament (link). I am using the official AFC website for some secondary data analysis.
In this post, I look at some of the data relating to fouls penalised, yellow cards, goals scored and the referees involved.
I have used ggplot2 (link) and ggrepel (link) for some very basic visualisations:
The group games are about to start at the 2019 Asian Cup football tournament (link).
I have used goal scoring data from the group games of the previous two Asian Cup tournaments to derive some naive priors for when goals will be scored in the group stage of the tournament.
It will be interesting to see the early trends in goal scoring. The previous goal scoring patterns (2015, 2011) were:
My data from goal scoring in 2015 and 2011 are:
The most recent Elo World Football Ratings were published on 3 January 2019 (link) and the FIFA Rankings on 20 December 2018 (link).
At the start of the 2019 Asian Cup (link), the ratings and rankings of the teams in the competition are:
In the 2015 Asian Cup tournament, the performances against Elo ratings were:
- Higher Elo rated team scores first and wins: 22 games (69% of games played)
- Higher Elo rated team does not score first and wins: 2 games (6%)
- Higher Elo rated team scores first and loses: 3 games (9%)
- Higher Elo rated team does not score first and loses: 5 games (16%)
I am going to monitor performance against Elo rating in 2019 and will start with these naive priors:
- 0.69 Higher Elo rated team scores first and wins
- 0.75 Higher Elo rated team wins
- 0.25 Higher Elo rated team loses
The tournament starts this evening with the United Arab Emirates v Bahrain Group A game in Abu Dhabi (link).