The group stages of the 2019 Asian Cup concluded with Lebanon’s defeat of North Korea on game 36 of the tournament (link).
In the group games:
- 96 goals were scored
- the team that scored first did not lose in 28 games
- the higher Elo rated team did not lose in 31 of the 36 games
- the five higher Elo rated teams that lost were: Thailand (v India); Australia (v Jordan); Bahrain (v Thailand); Syria (v Jordan); Saudi Arabia (v Qatar).
The 96 goals were scored in these 15 minute time intervals:
![A matrix and bar chart of when goals were scored in the group games by 15 minute time period.](https://i0.wp.com/keithlyons.me/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Screen-Shot-2019-01-18-at-3.25.03-pm.png?resize=772%2C310&ssl=1)
The posterior outcomes of these games compared to naive priors proposed prior to the tournament:
![A matrix and bar charts that compare prior probabilities with posterior probabilities after 36 games](https://i0.wp.com/keithlyons.me/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Screen-Shot-2019-01-18-at-3.25.45-pm.png?resize=487%2C444&ssl=1)
![A line diagram to compare prior and posterior probabilities.](https://i0.wp.com/keithlyons.me/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Screen-Shot-2019-01-18-at-3.26.20-pm.png?resize=798%2C492&ssl=1)
The knockout stages begin on Sunday, 20 January with the game between Jordan and Vietnam (link).
Hi Keith