Home Search

2014 fifa world cup - search results

If you're not happy with the results, please do another search

Predicting the Outcome of the 2014 FIFA World Cup: Part 2

Introduction Although I aspire to be connected to a social world of sharing, sometimes a lot of the time I am out of the loop. I am very grateful to everyone who nudges me back to lived reality. Earlier this week, I spent a lot of time researching predictive models for the 2014 FIFA World Cup. I wrote a blog post about my discoveries. David Dormagen (2014) started me off and his paper coincided with my reading of Goldman Sachs' predictions. Simon Gleave tweeted: https://twitter.com/SimonGleave/status/472093890531852289 I admire Simon's work immensely and was mortified to think I was so disconnected. Simon is connected and his leads...

Predicting the Outcome of the 2014 FIFA World Cup

Introduction Thirty two teams have qualified for the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil. The teams are allocated into the following Groups (with links to EA Infographics for each team). The number in brackets by each team is their FIFA Ranking on 8 May 2014 (a new ranking will be published on 6 June.) Group A - Brazil (4), Croatia (20), Mexico (19), Cameroon (50) Group B - Spain (1), Netherlands (15), Chile (13), Australia (59) Group C - Colombia (5), Greece (10), Ivory Coast (21), Japan (47) Group D - Uruguay (6), Costa Rica (34), England (11), Italy (9) Group E - Switzerland (8), Ecuador...

Referees at the 2014 FIFA World Cup

Introduction Four years ago, I tracked the performance of twenty-four referees at the FIFA World Cup in South Africa. FIFA has announced a pool of 33 referees for the 2014 World Cup. Included in this number are eight standby referees. The final list of 25 referees and their assistants was derived from 52 officials and their assistants. Five of the officials on this final list were at the 2010 World Cup: Ravshan Irmatov (Uzbekistan), Yuichi Nishimura (Japan), Howard Webb (England),  Joel Aguilar (El Salvador), and Peter O'Leary (New Zealand). Howard Webb refereed the Final between the Netherlands and Spain. The youngest referee at...

Scoring patterns in #WorldCup Knockout Phases 2010-2018

The Quarter Finals are about to take place at the 2018 FIFA World Cup. I have been using a naive Bayes approach to anticipate when goals might be scored in the knockout phase of the 2018 tournament. I chose some priors from the outcomes of the 2010 and 2014 tournament knockout phases. The posteriors for these were: 2010 2014 My priors for 2018 were: The posteriors for the Round of 16 were: A comparison of Priors and Posteriors after Round of 16: It will be interesting to see if this relationship changes in the forthcoming games ... particularly in regard of extra time.

2018 FIFA #WorldCup: end of first round of games

The first round of group games has concluded at the 2018 FIFA World Cup. 38 goals were scored in these 16 games. Of these: Winning teams scored 24 goals. Losing teams scored 4 goals. There were 10 goals scored in drawn games. The team that scored first did not lose in these 16 games. The time intervals when these goals were scored were: Time Interval (Minutes) Winner Losing Team Drawn Game Totals 0-15 3 0 1 4 16-30 0 0 4 4 31-45 4 2 1 7 46-60 5 0 3 8 61-75 6 1 0 7 76-90 6 1 1 8 I have been following a naive Bayes approach to the probability of scoring in these time intervals. Time Interval (Minutes) Prior to Tournament Posterior after Round 1 0-15 0.10 0.11 16-30 0.15 0.11 31-45 0.15 0.18 46-60 0.15 0.21 61-75 0.20 0.18 76-90 0.21 0.21 My probability priors for scoring by half (based on 2010 and 2014 World Cup performances)...

Naive probability priors for goal scoring at #WorldCupRussia2018

I have some naive prior probability estimates for when goals will be scored at the 2018 FIFA World Cup based on performances in 2014 and 2010. I am using 15 minute intervals mindful of the additional time added to each half of play. For the Group games: Interval Prior 0-15 0.10 16-30 0.15 31-45 0.15 46-60 0.15 61-75 0.20 76-90 0.25 For the Knockout games: Interval Prior 0-15 0.11 16-30 0.17 31-45 0.09 46-60 0.11 61-75 0.18 76-90 0.21 91-105 0.05 106-120 0.08 Photo Credit The wait is finally over (@RaheemDanyaro, Twitter)

Anticipating ball in play times at the 2018 FIFA World Cup

The 2018 FIFA World Cup starts in a few hours time. I am looking forward to accessing the data shared on the official website for the tournament. One of the measures that will interest me is ball in play time. In the 2014 FIFA World Cup, the median ball in play time for the first twelve games of the tournament was 55 minutes 30 seconds. The game by game profile for those games was: The range was: Chile v Australia and Argentina v Bosnia & Herzogovina (both 61 minutes); Brazil v Croatia (53 minutes). Photo Credit Luzhniki Stadium, Moscow (Derek Holtham, CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

Predicting the outcome of the 2018 FIFA World Cup using Elo ratings

Introduction The 2018 FIFA World Cup starts in a week's time. The first game is between Russia and Saudi Arabia in the Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow. In the most recent World Football Elo Ratings (8 June 2018) Russia is rated 44 and Saudi Arabia 63. (The  FIFA Rankings place Russia 70 and Saudi Arabia 67.) The Elo rating system for international football is calculated from the results of international A matches. The rating takes into account the kind of match, home team advantage, and goal difference in the match result. I used Elo ratings in my analysis of the 2014 FIFA World Cup...

Scoring first in football project: two FIFA World Cups

This is a second post in the scoring first in football project. The first reported on six European leagues in the 2017-2018 season. The methodology discussed in the first post was replicated in my analysis of the 2010 and 2014 FIFA World Cups. My data came from the Wikipedia pages for the tournaments. Here I share probabilities for: score first win (SFW) score first draw (SFD) score first lose (SFL) 0 v 0 game (0goals) scoring first and not losing (SFNL) I wondered if these measures could inform a naive Bayes approach to probabilistic behaviours in the upcoming World Cup. For the...

#WWC2015 and #WC2014: Comparing Ball in Play After 12 Games

FIFA have provided ball in play data for the 2014 and 2015 World Cups. Today is the start of round 2 of the group games for #WWC2015. I thought I would compare ball in play comparisons for both World Cup tournaments. I have selected the first 12 games in both tournaments. In 2014 the profile of ball in play was: The range of ball in play time was from the 63 minutes in the England v Italy game to 53 minutes in the opening Brazil v Croatia  game. In 2015, the profile is: The range in this tournament is 59 minutes in the Brazil v...