Medal Predictions and Projections: London 2012

I have been following the USA Today’s Medal Tracker since May last year.

The Tracker was updated most recently on 20 March.

Recently there have been two additions to the discussion of Olympic Medal predictions and projections.

The Herald Sun in Australia is using Infostrada data for its Virtual Medal Predictor. Its predictor will be updated at the start of each month. The March 2012 Table is:

This month Daniel Johnson has published his medal predictions.  Daniel has published predictions for the Olympics since the 2000 Summer Games in Sydney. This year he has recalibrated his model  and has used 60 years of historical data.

Daniel’s model uses non-athletic performance data to make forecasts: per capita income, population and the advantage of hosting the Games (or of living nearby). This year’s model includes “a host nation advantage that pre-dates and post-dates the Games actually hosted, and a “cultural specific factor” that helps to correct the model’s historical under-predictions for nations like Australia and China.”

A press release of Daniel’s predictions for 2012 can be found here.

Postscript

For other blog posts about medal predictions and projections for London, please use this link.

February 2012 Medal Projections for the London Olympics

USA Today is providing an Olympic Medal Tracker service.

The Olympic Medal Tracker “projects the winners in each medal event for the 2012 London Olympics, based on an algorithm that monitors athletes’ performances leading up to the Games”.

The Tracker projects “finishes for the top eight athletes in each event, plus country-by-country projections based on the accumulated results of individual events”.

The Tracker is updated monthly. The February 2012 projections were published on 3 February.

This month’s projections for total medals at the Games are:

There has been no change to the top ten ranked nations by total medals. In the top twenty nations, Brazil (16th to 13th) and Spain (24th to 19th) are two nations that have enhanced their standing in the table.

Postscript

For other blog posts about medal predictions and projections for London, please use this link.

January 2012 Medal Projections for the London Olympics

Last year I wrote about USA Today‘s excellent Medal Tracker service.

The Olympic Medal Tracker “projects the winners in each medal event for the 2012 London Olympics, based on an algorithm that monitors athletes’ performances leading up to the Games”.

The Tracker projects “finishes for the top eight athletes in each event, plus country-by-country projections based on the accumulated results of individual events”.

The Tracker is updated monthly. The January 2012 projections were published on 3 January.

The projections for total medals at the Games are:

Postscript

For other blog posts about medal predictions and projections for London, please use this link.