Closing the Gap: Winning from Behind in Football

Background

In my analysis of the 2010 FIFA World Cup and the 2011 Asian Football Cup I looked at the probability of not losing after scoring the first goal. These are the summary data for both tournaments.

In the 2010 World Cup:

In the 64 games played three teams scored first and lost. Nigeria scored first in Game 19 of the tournament. Greece won the game 2-1. It is interesting to note that: Greece was higher in the FIFA ranking; Nigeria had a player sent off in the 33rd minute; both of Greece’s goals were scored after the sending off. In Game 26 Cameroon scored first. Denmark won the game 2-1. Denmark was lower in the FIFA rankings than Cameroon. Both the teams to have scored first and lost in the Group Stage of the tournament were from the African continent and were been beaten by European teams. Cameroon was beaten twice by lower ranked teams (Japan and Denmark). Brazil scored first in Game 57 and lost 1-2 to Netherlands in the quarter final game. Brazil was the higher ranked team.

In the Asian Football Cup 2011:

Group Games

64 goals were scored at the 2011 Asian Cup in 24  Group games. The team that scored first won in 18 games, drew in 3 games and lost in 2 games. There was one 0-0 draw (DPR Korea v United Arab Emirates). The exceptions were: Iraq scored first against Iran and lost; Syria scored first against Jordan and lost.

Knockout Games

26 goals were scored in 8 Knockout games. The team that scored first won 6 games, drew 1 game and lost 1 game (Qatar scored first against Japan and lost).  One of the Knockout Games was decided by penalties. Japan defeated South Korea 3-0 in the penalty shoot out. Japan scored the first penalty and won the game.


Looking at Other Football Codes: Australian Rules, Rugby League and Rugby Union

The 2011 season in Australian provides an opportunity to look at scoring patterns in Australian Rules, Rugby League and Rugby Union Football codes. This season I am interested in the scoring gap that can be closed.

As of 11 April:

Australian Rules

Rugby League

Rugby Union

Super 15

Six Nations

Discussion

These three football codes provide an excellent opportunity to compare the number of occasions when teams come from behind. I intend to post these data after each round of the respective competitions.

Photo Credits

Honk, Honk, Honk

Starling Flock

Boids

Visualising Sport Performance Data

I find the quality and quantity of website data about sport performance staggering.

I wrote about the possibilities of secondary data analysis at the Asian Football Cup 2011.

Recently I have been looking at data from the ICC Cricket World Cup and noticed this Cricinfo game summary:

There is a dropped catch icon  and a wicket icon that provide links to text summaries of the event.

I have been looking at some rugby union sites too.

Foxtel have a record of game events in Super Rugby that I have found particularly useful in tracing sequence of scores:

The RSB Six Nations’ website provides a data report of each game available for download:

I like the elegant simplicity of the Cricinfo graphic, the concise information in the Foxtel graphic and the detail in the RSB Six Nations’ website data.

I acknowledge that these are secondary sources but they do provide a great permanent record for investigation. Perhaps it is my fascination with Edward Tufte‘s work has nourished my interest in visualisation.

Photo Credit

World Wide Web Visualization 4717

Rugby Union Six Nations' Tournament 2011: Winning Performances

This year’s Rugby Union Six Nations’ Tournament started on 5 February 2011 and was completed on 19 March 2011. The official website for the tournament is provided by RBS. The site provides detailed match data and video highlights.

The International Rugby Board (IRB) rankings (31 January 2011) of the teams (England, Ireland, France, Scotland, Wales, Italy) in the Tournament  were:

Fifteen games were played in the 2011 Tournament.

Home Advantage

There were nine home wins and six away wins.

Performance Against IRB Ranking

The higher IRB ranked team won ten games and lost five games.

Exceptions

Scotland (7) lost to Wales (9)

Ireland (5) lost to France (6)

France (6) lost to Italy (12)

Ireland (5) lost to Wales (9)

England (4) lost to Ireland (5)

The lower IRB ranked team won five games and lost ten games.

Wales (9) defeated Scotland (7)

France (6) defeated Ireland (5)

Italy (12) defeated France (6)

Wales (9) defeated Ireland (5)

Ireland (5) defeated England (4)

Scoring the First Converted Try

The team scoring the first converted try won eleven games out of fifteen games played. Ireland scored the first converted try in their game against Italy in the second half (no tries were scored in the first half). England scored the first converted try in their game against Scotland in the second half (no tries were scored in the first half). England scored the only try of the game against France in the second half. It was not converted. France scored the first try against Italy. It was not converted.

Exceptions

Ireland scored the first converted try against France and lost.

England did not convert the only try of the game against France.

France scored the first try against Italy and lost.

Ireland scored the first converted try against Wales and lost.

Try Scoring

The team scoring more tries won nine out of the fifteen games played. Ireland and Italy scored one try each (Round 1). Ireland scored more tries than France and lost (Round 2). Wales and Italy scored two tries each (Round 3). France scored more tries than Italy and lost (Round 4). Wales and Ireland scored one try each (Round 4). England and Scotland scored one try each (Round 4).

Converted Tries

The teams scoring more converted tries won ten out of fifteen games.

Exceptions

Ireland scored two converted tries against France (one converted try) but lost the game.

No converted try scored in the England v France game.

All teams scored one converted try each in Round 4.

Discipline

Round 1

England (9 penalties and 0 free kicks conceded) defeated Wales (9 penalties and 2 free kicks conceded).

Ireland (13 penalties and 3 free kicks conceded) defeated Italy (5 penalties and 5 free kicks conceded).

France (7 penalties and 1 free kick conceded) defeated Scotland (9 penalties and 3 free kicks conceded).

Round 2

England (18 penalties and 0 free kicks conceded) defeated Italy (14 penalties and 1 free kick conceded).

Wales (12 penalties and 2 free kicks conceded) defeated Scotland (9 penalties and 3 free kicks conceded).

France (8 penalties and 2 free kicks conceded) defeated Ireland (9 penalties and 0 free kicks conceded).

Round 3

England (7 penalties and 1 free kick conceded) defeated France (8 penalties and 5 free kicks conceded).

Wales (15 penalties and 0 free kicks conceded) defeated Italy (5 penalties and 2 free kicks conceded).

Ireland (12 penalties and 0 free kicks conceded) defeated Scotland (4 penalties and 0 free kicks conceded).

Round 4

Italy (8 penalties and 1 free kick conceded) defeated France (11 penalties and 2 free kicks conceded).

Wales (10 penalties and 1 free kick conceded) defeated Irealnd (8 penalties and 3 free kicks conceded).

England (9 penalties and 0 free kicks conceded) defeated Scotland (10 penalties and 3 free kicks conceded).

Round 5

Scotland (14 penalties and 0 free kicks conceded)  defeated Italy (9 penalties and 0 free kicks conceded).

Ireland (6 penalties and 2 free kicks conceded) defeated England (9 penalties and 0 free kicks conceded).

France (12 penalties and 1 free kick conceded) defeated Wales (13 penalties and 0 free kicks conceded).

Winning Performances

In this Tournament:

The higher IRB ranked team scores the first converted try is leading at half time and wins (England v Wales, France v Scotland, England v Italy, Wales v Italy, Ireland v Scotland).

The higher IRB ranked team scores the first converted try is leading at half time and loses (Ireland v France, Ireland v Wales).

The higher IRB ranked team scores the first try is leading at half time and wins (France v Wales).

The higher IRB ranked team scores the first try is leading at half time and loses (France v Italy).

There are no tries in the first half, a higher IRB ranked team scores the first converted try and wins (Ireland v Italy).

There are no tries in the first half, a higher IRB ranked team scores the first try and wins (England v France, England v Scotland).

The lower IRB ranked team scores the first converted try is leading at half time and wins (Wales v Scotland).

The lower IRB ranked team scores the first try, is leading at half time and wins (Ireland v England).

The lower IRB ranked team scores the first try, is leading at half time and loses (Italy v Scotland).