150215 Performances Against Rankings in Four Rugby Union Competitions


This was the first weekend of the Super Rugby 15 Tournament in New Zealand, Australia and South Africa.

The results were:

S1501In this colour code green (win) and blue (lose) are expected results based on finishing positions in the 2014 competition. Red (lose) and gold (win) are unexpected results.


In Europe, it was the second week of the Six Nations Rugby Tournament. After two weeks, the results are following 2014rankings:



In English domestic rugby competitions, the last two rounds have been:

Aviva Premiership


Tom Arscott passes

Greene King:


I have chosen ranking status as a macro indicator to guide my interest in the impact of performance infrastructures of game outcomes. I use the ranking status from the previous season to observe any changes that might have occurred in the current season.

My macro indicator does not take into account venue, team selection, referee or weather conditions.

My data for these Tournaments are available on Google Sheets:

Super 15

Six Nations

Aviva Premiership

Greene King IPA Championship

Photo Credits

Crusaders v Chiefs (Henrico Prins, CC BY-NC 2.0)

The Last Scrum (Antonio Cinotti, CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

line-out (Charlie, CC BY 2.0)

106-365 Worcester Warriors v Bristol Rugby (PaulSh, CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)


As we were: performances against ranking in three rugby union competitions


I have been monitoring three rugby union competitions in the 2014-2015 northern hemisphere season.

I track performance against previous year’s ranking. In the tables below green indicates a win predicted by ranking and blue a defeat predicted by ranking. Gold is an unexpected win against ranking and red an unexpected defeat against ranking.

Aviva Premiership


The Aviva Premiership resumed last weekend after a break for European fixtures.

Week 10 followed the pattern of Week 1 … all games followed the 2013-2014 rankings.


Greene King Championship

Three games were played last weekend. All followed 2013-2014 ranking.


Top 14 Orange



Round 13 of the Top 14 Orange competition in France provided the only exception to the ranking rule this weekend. Bayonne defeated Bordeaux Begles by 3 points. Bayonne’s win reflects the Top 14 trend of lower ranked teams winning at home. Grenoble did play a higher ranked team at home and lost … despite scoring 30 points against Stade Francais. You could say they were the exception to the exception.

Making a Difference


Fifteen out of last weekends sixteen fixtures followed 2013-2014 rankings. What interests me is that all teams have had an opportunity to reset their focus and training modalities after a break for European competition.

Have the teams regressed to type during this period?

There were no tries in the Bayonne v Bordeaux-Begles game. The game was won in the 78th minute with a drop goal.

Photo Credits

Millenium Stadium (Marc, CC BY NC-ND 2.0)

Joe Launchbury (Peter Dean, CC BY NC-ND 2.0)

DSC_1038 (Simon Robinson, CC BY-NC-SA 2.0)

Match rugby Top 14: Racing Metro v Perpignan (Christophe Cussant-Blanc, CC BY NC-ND 2.0)

USAP – Stade Toulousain 2012 (M Kibo, CC BY 2.0)

Early Season Performance in Three Rugby Tournaments 2014-2015 Season


Two rugby union tournaments started in England last weekend. The Top Orange tournament in France has completed four weeks.

The Aviva Premiership followed last season’s rankings in all games played on the first day of the season:

Aviva 1 2014

The start of the Greene King Championship was much more volatile:

GK1 2014

Only Leeds and the Pirates played to their 2013-2014 rankings.

In France in week 4, Lyon (over Oyannax) and Brive (over Toulouse) played above their 2013-2014 ranking:

Top 14 4 2014



Photo Credit

Simmo v Cipriani (Peter Dean, CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)