Performance Against Ranking: Rugby

I have been looking at performance against previous year’s ranking in rugby union and rugby league.

In the charts that follow, the green (win) and blue (lose) boxes indicate that teams conform with their previous year’s ranking, gold (win) and red (lose) indicate unexpected result based on the previous year.

In all examples shared, visually the expectation is that the bottom half of the table is predominantly blue and the top half green. It is interesting note how different the Top 14 Orange matrix is. Lower ranked teams win at home on a regular basis.

Super 15 Rugby Union (after 4 weeks)

SR4

Aviva Premiership Rugby Union (17 Rounds)

A17

Greene King Championship Rugby Union (17 Rounds)

GK17

Top 14 Orange Rugby Union (19 Rounds)

Top14 19

Six Nations Rugby Union (3 Rounds)

SN3

NRL Rugby League (1 Round)

NRL1

NRL 2011: Winning from behind in the regular season

I am interested in the ability to win in invasive team games.

This season I have looked at winning behaviours in association football, Australian rules football, rugby league and rugby union.

In this post I list those teams in this year’s 2011 NRL fixtures in Australia who were able to overcome a deficit within a game to win in the regular season (before the finals’ rounds).

In the table below the first named team (in bold) overcame a deficit to win. There was one draw that was not resolved in extra time.

This season the four largest deficits were overturned by the away team.

Gap Game Home/Away
22 Cowboys v Raiders (NRL13) Away Team
20 Rabbitohs v Dragons (NRL21) Away Team
18 Storm v Eels (NRL21) Away Team
18 Wests v Warriors (NRL14) Away Team
16 Bulldogs v Knights (NRL25) Home Team
16 Cowboys v Eels (NRL10) Home Team
14 Bulldogs v Eels (NRL6) Away Team
14 Titans v Tigers (NRL6) Home Team
13 Eagles v Sharks (NRL5) Away Team
12 Roosters v Eels (NRL25) Away Team
12 Rabbitohs v Cowboys (NRL24) Home Team
12 Tigers v Eagles (NRL21) Away Team
12 Raiders v Dragons (NRL20) Home Team
12 Cowboys v Titans (NRL20) Away Team
12 Warriors v Bulldogs (NRL19) Home Team
12 Rabbitohs v Sharks (NRL8) Home Team
12 Knights v Raiders (NRL7) Away Team
10 Bulldogs v Raiders (NRL24) Home Team
10 Dragons v Warriors (NRL25) Home Team
10 Roosters v Sharks (NRL24) Home Team
10 Eagles v Eels (NRL23) Away Team
10 Eels v Cowboys (NRL4) Home Team
8 Cowboys v Sharks (NRL25) Home Team
8 Warriors v Knights (NRL23) Home Team
8 Broncos v Warriors (NRL22) Home Team
8 Tigers v Dragons (NRL22) Home Team
8 Roosters v Panthers (NRL18) Home Team
8 Tigers v Panthers (NRL11) Home Team
8 Eels v Titans (NRL7) Home Team
6 Broncos v Rabbitohs (NRL25) Home Team
6 Panthers v Raiders (NRL25) Away Team
6 Titans v Raiders (NRL24) Home Team
6 Storm v Dragons (NRL24) Home Team
6 Storm v Panthers (NRL22) Home Team
6 Knights v Titans (NRL21) Home Team
6 Cowboys v Panthers (NRL21) Home Yeam
6 Roosters v Bulldogs (NRL21) Home Team
6 Panthers v Eels (NRL19) Home Team
6 Rabbitohs v Roosters (NRL19) Home Team
6 Eagles v Rabbitons (NRL18) Home Team
6 Knights v Dragons (NRL17) Away Team
6 Wests v Knights (NRL13) Home Team
6 Storm v Rabbitohs (NRL13) Away Team
6 Eagles v Broncos (NRL12) Away Team
6 Warriors v Knights (NRL10) Away Team
6 Wests v Raiders (NRL8) Away Team
6 Storm v Knights (NRL8) Home Team
6 Warriors v Storm (NRL7) Away Team
6 Warriors v Roosters (NRL5) Home Team
6 Bulldogs v Rabbitohs (NRL7) Home Team
6 Tigers v Rabbitohs (NRL5) Home Team
6 Eagles v Knights (NRL3) Home Team
6 Broncos v Titans (NRL3) Away Team
6 Wests v Warriors (NRL2) Home Team
6 Raiders v Sharks (NRL1) Home Team
6 Titans v Raiders (NRL4) Away Team
4 Knights v Raiders (NRL22) Home Team
4 Wests v Roosters (NRL20) Home Team
4 Knights v Roosters (NRL16) Home Team
4 Panthers v Cowboys (NRL16) Home Team
4 Sharks v Titans (NRL16) Away Team
4 Broncos v Dragons (NRL15) Home Team
4 Titans v Dragons (NRL13) Away Team
4 Broncos v Sharks (NRL13) Away Team
4 Panthers v Titans (NRL13) Away Team
4 Cowboys v Eagles (NRL8) Home Team
4 Knights v Sharks (NRL6) Home Team
4 Eagles v Warriors (NRL6) Home Team
4 Cowboys v Broncos (NRL1) Away Team
4 Broncos v Panthers (NRL4) Home Team
3 Eagles v Bulldogs (NRL24) Home Team
2 Roosters v Dragons (NRL23) Away Team
2 Storm v Titans (NRL23) Away Team
2 Warriors v Raiders (NRL21) Home Team
2 Sharks v Raiders (NRL18) Home Team
2 Storm v Warriors (NRL16) Away Team
2 Eagles v Eels (NRL15) Home Team
2 Cowboys v Warriors (NRL15) Home Team
2 Storm v Roosters (NRL14) Home Team
2 Storm v Sharks (NRL12) Home Team
2 Dragons v Cowboys (NRL9) Home Team
2 Warriors v Titans (NRL9) Away Team
2 Broncos v Knights (NRL5) Home Team
2 Bulldogs v Roosters (NRL2) Home Team
2 Knights v Panthers (NRL1) Away Team
2 Storm v Eagles (NRL1) Home Team
1 Bulldogs v Eels (NRL20) Home Team
1 Roosters v Rabbitohs (NRL1) Home Team
Draw
13 Dragons v Eels (NRL8) Home Team

Photo Credit

Video referee confirms Mark Gasnier’s try

Closing the Gap: Winning from Behind in Football

Background

In my analysis of the 2010 FIFA World Cup and the 2011 Asian Football Cup I looked at the probability of not losing after scoring the first goal. These are the summary data for both tournaments.

In the 2010 World Cup:

In the 64 games played three teams scored first and lost. Nigeria scored first in Game 19 of the tournament. Greece won the game 2-1. It is interesting to note that: Greece was higher in the FIFA ranking; Nigeria had a player sent off in the 33rd minute; both of Greece’s goals were scored after the sending off. In Game 26 Cameroon scored first. Denmark won the game 2-1. Denmark was lower in the FIFA rankings than Cameroon. Both the teams to have scored first and lost in the Group Stage of the tournament were from the African continent and were been beaten by European teams. Cameroon was beaten twice by lower ranked teams (Japan and Denmark). Brazil scored first in Game 57 and lost 1-2 to Netherlands in the quarter final game. Brazil was the higher ranked team.

In the Asian Football Cup 2011:

Group Games

64 goals were scored at the 2011 Asian Cup in 24  Group games. The team that scored first won in 18 games, drew in 3 games and lost in 2 games. There was one 0-0 draw (DPR Korea v United Arab Emirates). The exceptions were: Iraq scored first against Iran and lost; Syria scored first against Jordan and lost.

Knockout Games

26 goals were scored in 8 Knockout games. The team that scored first won 6 games, drew 1 game and lost 1 game (Qatar scored first against Japan and lost).  One of the Knockout Games was decided by penalties. Japan defeated South Korea 3-0 in the penalty shoot out. Japan scored the first penalty and won the game.


Looking at Other Football Codes: Australian Rules, Rugby League and Rugby Union

The 2011 season in Australian provides an opportunity to look at scoring patterns in Australian Rules, Rugby League and Rugby Union Football codes. This season I am interested in the scoring gap that can be closed.

As of 11 April:

Australian Rules

Rugby League

Rugby Union

Super 15

Six Nations

Discussion

These three football codes provide an excellent opportunity to compare the number of occasions when teams come from behind. I intend to post these data after each round of the respective competitions.

Photo Credits

Honk, Honk, Honk

Starling Flock

Boids