2015 Super 15 Rugby After 6 Rounds


I have been reading the most recent edition of Ben Darwin’s Gain Line Report. Ben provides a teamwork index (TWI) for all fifteen Super Rugby teams.

Ben’s insights have taken me back to look at my metric for Super Rugby performance. I use performance in the current season compared to previous year’s ranking as my starting point for thinking about organisational change.

After six rounds of this year’s competition, this is my record of performance against 2014 ranking:


In this legend, green is an expected win, blue an expected defeat, gold an unexpected win and red and unexpected loss. This legend indicates that the Hurricanes have had a steady, successful start to their season. They have defeated teams they are expected to defeat and in Round 6 had a narrow away win against the Highlanders ranked one place above them in 2014. The Stormers have had a good start to their season with unexpected wins early.

The ladder in 2015 after 6 Rounds is:


The combination of blue and red for the Blues and the Force has pushed them to the bottom of he ladder. The Reds have played above their 2014 ranking once in six games, a win at home against the Force.

My data resonate with Ben’s observations about TWI. It will be interesting to observe how teams overcome their ranking and TWI index in the next few weeks as they start to make longer journeys for away fixtures.

Photo Credit

Super XV Waratahs v Force (Simon_sees, CC BY 2.0)

130813 Performance Against Ranking 2013 Football Season


1368424668_f6d7627a52_oThis is a twentieth post about performance against ranking in three football codes in Australia in the 2013 Football season.

The codes are Australian Rules, Rugby League and Rugby Union

You can find some background information about this project here.

Australian Rules

In Round 20, the Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs and Collingwood played above their 2012 rankings in their defeats of Melbourne, Carlton and Sydney respectively. Until the defeat by Collingwood, Sydney had won six games in succession.

Average points scored by Winners this Round and over the whole season are:

R20 Win

For Losers:

R20 Lose

Rugby League

Four teams played above their 2012 rankings in Round 22: the Titans, Knights, Roosters and Eels. The Titans and Knights won away from home against the Bulldogs and Sharks respectively. The Roosters completed a seventh win in succession against the Raiders. Six of these wins have been against higher ranked teams from 2012. drew at home against the Broncos, a higher ranked team from 2012. The Roosters last loss was in Round 14. The Sea eagles completed their sixth win in succession in their Round 22 clash against the Warriors.

Rugby Union

The Super 15 competition has concluded. SANZAR teams are preparing for international fixtures.

Photo Credit

Aussie Rules Football 9 (Kevin Tostado, CC BY 2.0)

130528 Performance Against Ranking 2013 Football Season


This is a ninth post about performance against ranking in three football codes in Australia.

The codes are Australian Rules, Rugby League and Rugby Union

You can find some background information about this project here.

Australian Rules: Winners and Losers

beautiful day for a game

Eight of the nine games in Round 9 of the AFL followed the 2012 Rankings. The exception was the Western Bulldogs defeat of St Kilda. The Bulldogs were trailing by two points at the end of the Third Quarter. In overcoming an end of third quarter deficit, the Western Bulldogs became the tenth team to do so this season. Adelaide became the eleventh team to overcome a third quarter deficit when they ran down an 18 point deficit over North Melbourne. St Kilda have held two end of Third Quarter leads and lost, North Melbourne three (Rounds 1, 8 and 9).

To date there have been 21 games out of 81 in which a team has outperformed its 2012 Ranking. Three teams account for 10 of these wins: Essendon (4), Gold Coast (3) and Fremantle (3). The team having most difficulty playing to its 2012 ranking is St Kilda (4 defeats to lower ranked teams). West Coast (3) and Adelaide (3) have had difficulty maintaining their ranking too.

Average Winner’s Profile this season and in Round 9:


Average Loser’s Profile this season and Round 9:


Rugby League

Laser Rain

Week 11 saw the second defeat of the season for South Sydney. They were defeated by the Sharks. This week the Panthers, Warriors and Wests outperformed their rankings also with victories over St George, Knights and Cowboys respectively. To date there have been 33 games out of 88 in which teams have outperformed their rankings.  The Roosters and Knights have both won five games against higher ranked opposition. The panthers have had four wins. The teams finding it difficult to play to ranking have been the Bulldogs (six losses), the Cowboys (five losses) and the raiders (four losses).

Rugby Union

Blues vs Crusaders, Super Rugby 2013

Week 15 of the season has an interesting pattern. The top 7 teams from 2012 played to their ranking. The bottom half of the ladder was volatile with the Rebels and the Force recording wins over the Warratahs and Highlanders respectively. So far this season there have been 34 games out of 95 where teams have outplayed their ranking. Three teams are responsible for half of this total (Blues (5), Kings (4), Force (4) and Brumbies (4)). The Stormers and the Reds have had most difficulty playing to their 2012 rankings (7 and 5 defeats respectively).

Photo Credits

Beautiful Day for a Game (Dannebrog, CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

Laser Rain (Colin Adland, CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

Blues v Crusaders 2013 (Tai Ha, CC BY-NC-SA 2.0)