#AsianCup2019 after nine games

Nine games have been played in the 2019 Asian Cup football tournament (link).

Before the tournament, I identified some naive probabilities about when goals would be scored in six time intervals in group games.

After nine games played, the relationship between the priors and posterior outcomes is:

As to what kind of tournament this is in relation to 2011 and 2015, after nine games in 2019 the relationship is:

I am interested in the performance of teams in the tournament with regard to their Elo rating. After 9 games, the higher Elo rated team has not lost 78% of the games played. The two higher Elo rated team to lose were Australia (against Jordan) and Thailand (against India). Australia was rated 35th and Jordan 97th. Thailand 113, India 155.

What kind of football season so far?

I estimated some priors for game outcomes in six European football leagues at the start of the 2018-2019 seasons in England, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain.

I have some posteriors for these leagues after the conclusion of games on 22 October.

My data are:

The differences between my priors and posteriors are:

Without seeing any of the Eredivisie season in the Netherlands thus far, I am fascinated by the change in that league’s profile. There has been an observable change in the Primera in Spain too.

Photo Credit

Kampioen (ShotOnGoal, Twitter)