The Quarter Finals are about to take place at the 2018 FIFA World Cup.
I have been using a naive Bayes approach to anticipate when goals might be scored in the knockout phase of the 2018 tournament.
I chose some priors from the outcomes of the 2010 and 2014 tournament knockout phases. The posteriors for these were:
My priors for 2018 were:
The posteriors for the Round of 16 were:
A comparison of Priors and Posteriors after Round of 16:
It will be interesting to see if this relationship changes in the forthcoming games … particularly in regard of extra time.
I have some naive prior probability estimates for when goals will be scored at the 2018 FIFA World Cup based on performances in 2014 and 2010.
I am using 15 minute intervals mindful of the additional time added to each half of play.
For the Group games:
For the Knockout games:
The wait is finally over (@RaheemDanyaro, Twitter)
This is a second post in the scoring first in football project. The first reported on six European leagues in the 2017-2018 season.
The methodology discussed in the first post was replicated in my analysis of the 2010 and 2014 FIFA World Cups. My data came from the Wikipedia pages for the tournaments.
Here I share probabilities for:
- score first win (SFW)
- score first draw (SFD)
- score first lose (SFL)
- 0 v 0 game (0goals)
- scoring first and not losing (SFNL)
I wondered if these measures could inform a naive Bayes approach to probabilistic behaviours in the upcoming World Cup.
For the 2010 World Cup my median probabilities are:
- SFW 0.67 (Group 0.67, Knockout 0.69)
- SFD 0.17 (Group 0.17, Knockout 0.13)
- SFL 0.00 (Group 0.17, Knockout 0.06)
- 0goals 0.17 (Group 0.17, Knockout 0.13)
- SFNL 0.83 (Group 0.83, Knockout 0.82)
For the 2014 World Cup my median probabilities are:
SFW 0.67 (Group 0.67, Knockout 0.69)
SFD 0.00 (Group 0.00, Knockout 0.13)
SFL 0.17 (Group 0.17, Knockout 0.06)
0goals 0.17 (Group 0.17, Knockout 0.13)
SFNL 0.82 (Group 0.75, Knockout 0.82)
Note: for the purposes of this analysis, I have used the score at the end of regulation time. The data do not include any games won in extra time or in penalty shoot outs. I have recorded the 2010 World Cup final, for example, as a 0 v 0 (0goals) game. Spain scored the winning goal in the second period of extra time (Iniesta 116 minutes).
Soccer City (Shine 2010, CC BY 2.0)