I was keen to learn how my naive priors for game outcomes fared in the excitement of the first week of the season in England, France and the Netherlands in the 29 games played.
The priors and posteriors for four game outcomes (n = 10 games):
The differences in these outcomes:
For home and away outcomes:
Four game outcomes (n = 10 games):
Four game outcomes (n = 9 games):
Scoring First and Not Losing
I am interested in the impact of the first goal scored in a game. Based on last season’s competitions, my priors for scoring first and not losing in the EPL, Ligue 1 and the Eredivise are 0.81, 0.83, and 0.78 respectively. After week 1, the relationship is:
There were no games in the EPL in which the team scored first lost.
In Ligue 1 there were two games in which the team scored first lost: Rennes v Lille (Rennes the away team, Lille equalised in 2 minutes); Montpellier v Dijon (Montpellier the home team, Dijon equalised after 47 minutes). There was one game in the Eredivisie in which the team scored first and lost: Zwolle v Heerenveen (Zwolle the home team, Heerenveen equalised in 4 minutes).
Leroy Sane (Twitter)
Gianluigi Buffon (Twitter)