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Predicting the outcome of the 2018 FIFA World Cup using Elo ratings

Introduction The 2018 FIFA World Cup starts in a week's time. The first game is between Russia and Saudi Arabia in the Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow. In the most recent World Football Elo Ratings (8 June 2018) Russia is rated 44 and Saudi Arabia 63. (TheĀ  FIFA Rankings place Russia 70 and Saudi Arabia 67.) The Elo rating system for international football is calculated from the results of international A matches. The rating takes into account the kind of match, home team advantage, and goal difference in the match result. I used Elo ratings in my analysis of the 2014 FIFA World Cup...