When will goals be scored in the group games at #AsianCup2019?

The group games are about to start at the 2019 Asian Cup football tournament (link).

I have used goal scoring data from the group games of the previous two Asian Cup tournaments to derive some naive priors for when goals will be scored in the group stage of the tournament.

It will be interesting to see the early trends in goal scoring. The previous goal scoring patterns (2015, 2011) were:

My data from goal scoring in 2015 and 2011 are:

Time Interval20152011
0-15 minutes0.100.19
16-30 minutes0.130.17
31-45 minutes0.250.19
46-60 minutes0.160.14
61-75 minutes0.160.11
76-90 minutes0.200.21

Game outcomes in six European football leagues: 30 October update

Serie A and the EPL concluded this week’s fixtures in six European leagues.

My summary of game outcomes in these leagues to date is:

I estimated some priors for game outcomes before the first games in the six leagues. My data are:

My visualisation of the differences between priors and posteriors is:

Photo Credit

Inter Milan v Lazio (Twitter)

Game outcomes in six European football leagues: October 2018

After the completion of three games on Monday evening, six European leagues (EPL, Ligue 1, Bundesliga, Serie A, Eredivisie, and Primera) have played 520 games.

I have been monitoring goal scoring in these leagues. My data are:

Scoring First and Winning

n= 335

Scored First and Drawing

n = 94

Scoring First and Not Losing

n = 429

Scoring First and Losing

n = 57

Photo Credit

Emirates (Unai Emery, Twitter)