Goal scoring at the #CupOfNations

The 2019 Cup of Nations football tournament concluded yesterday (link).

All six games played were won by the team scoring first. The higher FIFA ranked team (link) won each of the six games (Australia, 6; Korea Republic, 14; New Zealand, 19; Argentina, 36).

The 19 goals in the tournament were scored in these fifteen-minute intervals:

My posterior outcome of this scoring pattern is:

Photo Credit

1-0 (Westfield Matildas, Twitter)

#AsianCup2019 after 24 games

The second round of group games at the 2019 Asian Cup (link) concluded with Uzbekistan’s 4v0 defeat of Turkmenistan in Group F (link).

In the 24 games played:

  • The team that scored first has not lost in 20 of these games.
  • The higher Elo rated team has not lost in 20 games.
  • The four higher Elo rated teams that have lost are: Thailand (v India); Australia (v Jordan); Bahrain (v Thailand); and Syria (v Jordan).

66 goals have been scored in these 24 games. By time interval, these goals were scored:

A bar chart of the time intervals when the 66 goals in the tournament have been scored.

The pattern of goal scoring in the 24 games compared to some naive priors identified before the tournament is:

A line chart of the comparison between naive priors and posterior outcomes after 24 games.


When will goals be scored in the group games at #AsianCup2019?

The group games are about to start at the 2019 Asian Cup football tournament (link).

I have used goal scoring data from the group games of the previous two Asian Cup tournaments to derive some naive priors for when goals will be scored in the group stage of the tournament.

It will be interesting to see the early trends in goal scoring. The previous goal scoring patterns (2015, 2011) were:

My data from goal scoring in 2015 and 2011 are:

Time Interval20152011
0-15 minutes0.100.19
16-30 minutes0.130.17
31-45 minutes0.250.19
46-60 minutes0.160.14
61-75 minutes0.160.11
76-90 minutes0.200.21