Scoring patterns in #WorldCup Knockout Phases 2010-2018

The Quarter Finals are about to take place at the 2018 FIFA World Cup.

I have been using a naive Bayes approach to anticipate when goals might be scored in the knockout phase of the 2018 tournament.

I chose some priors from the outcomes of the 2010 and 2014 tournament knockout phases. The posteriors for these were:

2010

2014

My priors for 2018 were:

The posteriors for the Round of 16 were:

A comparison of Priors and Posteriors after Round of 16:

It will be interesting to see if this relationship changes in the forthcoming games … particularly in regard of extra time.

Goals scored in Group games #WorldCup 2018: some priors and posteriors

122 goals were scored in the Group games of the 2018 FIFA World Cup tournament.

I have some priors and posteriors for this and two previous tournaments for when goals might be and were scored in 15-minute time intervals.

I have some posteriors for when goals were scored by half:

My priors, by time interval, for the knockout stage in 2018 are:

Postscript

A record of the 122 goals scored in the Group stages can be found in this Google Sheet.

Goal scoring at the 2018 FIFA World Cup after 11 games

Eleven games have been completed at the 2018 FIFA World Cup. Twenty-five goals have been scored.

Before the tournament started, I identified some naive priors for the consideration of when goals might be scored in fifteen minute time intervals in the group games.

IntervalPrior
0-15m0.10
16-30m0.15
31-45m0.15
46-60m0.15
61-75m0.20
76-90m0.25

After 11 games my probability profile for when a goal will be scored is:

IntervalPrior
0-15m0.08
16-30m0.16
31-45m0.16
46-60m0.24
61-75m0.12
76-90m0.24

The distribution of goals by half played is first half 0.40 and second half 0.60.

Photo Credit

Fifa world cup 2018 (Коля Саныч, CC BY-ND 2.0)