Early exposure to Charles Reep’s work has led me to a four decade fascination with the observation and analysis of goal-scoring in association football.
I have a particular interest in those games in which a team scores first and loses.
So far, in five of Europe’s major leagues (Bundesliga yet to start) there have been seven games of this type:
I have explored these games with some R packages in R Studio. The packages are: tidyverse, ggplot2 and ggrepel.
My basic visualisations:
The scores in these games
The teams that overcame conceding the first goals:
The basic code I used to create these visualisations:
df <- read.csv(“SFL.csv”)
ggplot(df, aes(x=League, y=TE, label = Game)) +
geom_point(colour = “firebrick1”) +
geom_label_repel(size = 3, colour = “black”, fontface = “bold”) +
ggtitle(“Games in which team scores first and loses”) +
labs(subtitle = “European Leagues 2018-2019”) +
xlab (“League”) + ylab (“Time Taken to Equalise (Minutes)”) +
AFC Bournemouth (Twitter)
The Quarter Finals are about to take place at the 2018 FIFA World Cup.
I have been using a naive Bayes approach to anticipate when goals might be scored in the knockout phase of the 2018 tournament.
I chose some priors from the outcomes of the 2010 and 2014 tournament knockout phases. The posteriors for these were:
My priors for 2018 were:
The posteriors for the Round of 16 were:
A comparison of Priors and Posteriors after Round of 16:
It will be interesting to see if this relationship changes in the forthcoming games … particularly in regard of extra time.
122 goals were scored in the Group games of the 2018 FIFA World Cup tournament.
I have some priors and posteriors for this and two previous tournaments for when goals might be and were scored in 15-minute time intervals.
I have some posteriors for when goals were scored by half:
My priors, by time interval, for the knockout stage in 2018 are:
A record of the 122 goals scored in the Group stages can be found in this Google Sheet.