The Quarter Finals are about to take place at the 2018 FIFA World Cup.
I have been using a naive Bayes approach to anticipate when goals might be scored in the knockout phase of the 2018 tournament.
I chose some priors from the outcomes of the 2010 and 2014 tournament knockout phases. The posteriors for these were:
My priors for 2018 were:
The posteriors for the Round of 16 were:
A comparison of Priors and Posteriors after Round of 16:
It will be interesting to see if this relationship changes in the forthcoming games … particularly in regard of extra time.
122 goals were scored in the Group games of the 2018 FIFA World Cup tournament.
I have some priors and posteriors for this and two previous tournaments for when goals might be and were scored in 15-minute time intervals.
I have some posteriors for when goals were scored by half:
My priors, by time interval, for the knockout stage in 2018 are:
A record of the 122 goals scored in the Group stages can be found in this Google Sheet.
Eleven games have been completed at the 2018 FIFA World Cup. Twenty-five goals have been scored.
Before the tournament started, I identified some naive priors for the consideration of when goals might be scored in fifteen minute time intervals in the group games.
After 11 games my probability profile for when a goal will be scored is:
The distribution of goals by half played is first half 0.40 and second half 0.60.
Fifa world cup 2018 (Коля Саныч, CC BY-ND 2.0)