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Goals scored at #FIFAWWC 2019

146 goals (link) were scored at the 2019 FIFA Women's World Cup. The order (1 to 146) in which they were scored in the Tournament is listed on this Google Sheet (link). The time order in which they were scored in the Tournament is listed on this Google Sheet (link). Photo Credits First Goal (FIFA Live Blog) 146th Goal (FIFA Live Blog)

Goal scoring at the #CupOfNations

The 2019 Cup of Nations football tournament concluded yesterday (link). All six games played were won by the team scoring first. The higher FIFA ranked team (link) won each of the six games (Australia, 6; Korea Republic, 14; New Zealand, 19; Argentina, 36). The 19 goals in the tournament were scored in these fifteen-minute intervals: My posterior outcome of this scoring pattern is: Photo...

#AsianCup2019 after 24 games

The second round of group games at the 2019 Asian Cup (link) concluded with Uzbekistan's 4v0 defeat of Turkmenistan in Group F (link). In the 24 games played: The team that scored first has not lost in 20 of these games. The higher Elo rated team has not lost in 20 games. The four higher Elo rated teams that have lost are: Thailand (v India); Australia (v Jordan); Bahrain (v Thailand); and Syria (v Jordan). 66 goals...

When will goals be scored in the group games at #AsianCup2019?

The group games are about to start at the 2019 Asian Cup football tournament (link). I have used goal scoring data from the group games of the previous two Asian Cup tournaments to derive some naive priors for when goals will be scored in the group stage of the tournament. It will be interesting to see the early trends in goal scoring. The previous goal scoring patterns (2015, 2011) were: My data from...

Game outcomes in six European football leagues: 30 October update

Serie A and the EPL concluded this week's fixtures in six European leagues. My summary of game outcomes in these leagues to date is: I estimated some priors for game outcomes before the first games in the six leagues. My data are: My visualisation of the differences between priors and posteriors is: Photo Credit Inter Milan v Lazio (Twitter)

Game outcomes in six European football leagues: October 2018

After the completion of three games on Monday evening, six European leagues (EPL, Ligue 1, Bundesliga, Serie A, Eredivisie, and Primera) have played 520 games. I have been monitoring goal scoring in these leagues. My data are: Scoring First and Winning n= 335 Scored First and Drawing n = 94 Scoring First and Not Losing n = 429 Scoring First and Losing n = 57 Photo Credit Emirates (Unai Emery, Twitter)

Scoring First and Losing: European football leagues 2018-2019

Early exposure to Charles Reep's work has led me to a four decade fascination with the observation and analysis of goal-scoring in association football. I have a particular interest in those games in which a team scores first and loses. So far, in five of Europe's major leagues (Bundesliga yet to start) there have been seven games of this type: I have explored these games with some R packages in R Studio. The packages are: tidyverse, ggplot2 and ggrepel. My basic visualisations: The Games The scores in these games The teams that overcame conceding the first goals: The basic code I used to create these visualisations: library(tidyverse) library(ggplot2) library(ggrepel) df <-...

Scoring patterns in #WorldCup Knockout Phases 2010-2018

The Quarter Finals are about to take place at the 2018 FIFA World Cup. I have been using a naive Bayes approach to anticipate when goals might be scored in the knockout phase of the 2018 tournament. I chose some priors from the outcomes of the 2010 and 2014 tournament knockout phases. The posteriors for these were: 2010 2014 My priors for 2018 were: The posteriors for the Round of 16 were: A comparison of Priors and Posteriors after Round of 16: It will be interesting to see if this relationship changes in the forthcoming games ... particularly in regard of extra time.

Goals scored in Group games #WorldCup 2018: some priors and posteriors

122 goals were scored in the Group games of the 2018 FIFA World Cup tournament. I have some priors and posteriors for this and two previous tournaments for when goals might be and were scored in 15-minute time intervals. I have some posteriors for when goals were scored by half: My priors, by time interval, for the knockout stage in 2018 are: Postscript A record of the 122 goals scored in the Group stages can be found in this Google Sheet.

Goal scoring at the 2018 FIFA World Cup after 11 games

Eleven games have been completed at the 2018 FIFA World Cup. Twenty-five goals have been scored. Before the tournament started, I identified some naive priors for the consideration of when goals might be scored in fifteen minute time intervals in the group games. Interval Prior 0-15m 0.10 16-30m 0.15 31-45m 0.15 46-60m 0.15 61-75m 0.20 76-90m 0.25 After 11 games my probability profile for when a goal will be scored is: Interval Prior 0-15m 0.08 16-30m 0.16 31-45m 0.16 46-60m 0.24 61-75m 0.12 76-90m 0.24 The distribution of goals by half played is first half 0.40 and second half 0.60. Photo Credit Fifa world cup 2018 (Коля Саныч, CC BY-ND 2.0)