Game outcomes in six European football leagues: 30 October update

Serie A and the EPL concluded this week’s fixtures in six European leagues.

My summary of game outcomes in these leagues to date is:

I estimated some priors for game outcomes before the first games in the six leagues. My data are:

My visualisation of the differences between priors and posteriors is:

Photo Credit

Inter Milan v Lazio (Twitter)

Game outcomes in six European football leagues: October 2018

After the completion of three games on Monday evening, six European leagues (EPL, Ligue 1, Bundesliga, Serie A, Eredivisie, and Primera) have played 520 games.

I have been monitoring goal scoring in these leagues. My data are:

Scoring First and Winning

n= 335

Scored First and Drawing

n = 94

Scoring First and Not Losing

n = 429

Scoring First and Losing

n = 57

Photo Credit

Emirates (Unai Emery, Twitter)

Scoring First and Losing: European football leagues 2018-2019

Early exposure to Charles Reep’s work has led me to a four decade fascination with the observation and analysis of goal-scoring in association football.

I have a particular interest in those games in which a team scores first and loses.

So far, in five of Europe’s major leagues (Bundesliga yet to start) there have been seven games of this type:

Time in minutes to equalise (TE), team that scores first (TSF), team that wins (TW).

I have explored these games with some R packages in R Studio. The packages are: tidyverse, ggplot2 and ggrepel.

My basic visualisations:

The Games

The scores in these games

The teams that overcame conceding the first goals:

The basic code I used to create these visualisations:

library(tidyverse)
library(ggplot2)
library(ggrepel)
df <- read.csv(“SFL.csv”)
df %>%
 arrange(TE)
ggplot(df, aes(x=League, y=TE, label = Game)) +
  geom_point(colour = “firebrick1”) +
  geom_label_repel(size = 3, colour = “black”, fontface =  “bold”) +
  ggtitle(“Games in which team scores first and loses”) +
  labs(subtitle = “European Leagues 2018-2019”) +
  xlab (“League”) + ylab (“Time Taken to Equalise (Minutes)”) +
  theme_minimal()

Photo Credit

AFC Bournemouth (Twitter)