Sydney plays Fremantle today in the second preliminary final of the 2014 AFL season.
The spectroscope of Sydney’s season is:
The teams met once this year in Round 5 in Sydney.
The scoring pattern by quarter was:
The data suggest a Sydney win notwithstanding the team’s defeat by Richmond in last week’s final game of the regular season.
Sydney won this game 93 v 69.
Fremantle have won their way to their first AFL Grand Final after defeating Sydney.
During the regular season, their scoring performance compared to the weekly winning average was:
Fremantle lost five games during the regular season (Essendon (week 3); Hawthorn (week 4); Geelong (week 14); Richmond (week 17); St Kilda (week 23)).
Following on from my post about visualising the season’s performances of Hawthorn and Richmond, I present a colour comparison of Fremantle’s actual path to the Grand Final compared to a prediction of the season based on 2012 rankings.
In this comparison I have used two hues. The darker the hue the closer Fremantle’s opponents.
It is interesting to note Fremantle’s blue (winning) progress after the predicted loss to Hawthorn in week 4. There followed a run of seven victories and a draw. In my visualisation, the away draw at Sydney was a winning draw against a higher ranked team. In that game, Fremantle overcame an end of third quarter deficit of eight points to draw the game.
The red hue indicates Fremantle losses. Fremantle lost to three lower ranked teams during the regular season: Essendon (round 3 at home); Richmond (round 17 away); St Kilda (round 23 away).
I think key moments in the transformation of Fremantle’s season were:
- Week 1 home win against West Coast
- Week 7 home win against Collingwood
- Week 8 away draw at Sydney
- Week 10 away win against Adelaide.
By the time Fremantle were enjoying their Bye Week in week 11, they were on their way to the Finals. Their performances after the Bye were impressive (with the exception of the Week 23 defeat against St Kilda).
This will be Fremantle’s first grand final since the founding of the AFL club in 1995.
Dockers scored a goal (Kelly Underwood, CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)
Fremantle Dockers Purple Haze Day (Michael Spencer, CC BY 2.0)