Elo ratings and FIFA rankings prior to #AsianCup2019

The most recent Elo World Football Ratings were published on 3 January 2019 (link) and the FIFA Rankings on 20 December 2018 (link).

At the start of the 2019 Asian Cup (link), the ratings and rankings of the teams in the competition are:

TeamEloFIFA
Iran1929
South Korea2353
Australia3541
Japan3650
Syria5874
Uzbekistan6095
Saudi Arabia6269
Iraq6388
Oman7482
Qatar7793
China8076
UA Emirates8579
Lebanon9181
Jordan97109
Bahrain99113
North Korea100109
Palestine11299
Thailand113118
Vietnam124100
Kyrgyzstan14091
Turkmenistan150127
India15597
Yemen164135
Philippines169116

In the 2015 Asian Cup tournament, the performances against Elo ratings were:

  • Higher Elo rated team scores first and wins: 22 games (69% of games played)
  • Higher Elo rated team does not score first and wins: 2 games (6%)
  • Higher Elo rated team scores first and loses: 3 games (9%)
  • Higher Elo rated team does not score first and loses: 5 games (16%)

I am going to monitor performance against Elo rating in 2019 and will start with these naive priors:

  • 0.69 Higher Elo rated team scores first and wins
  • 0.75 Higher Elo rated team wins
  • 0.25 Higher Elo rated team loses

The tournament starts this evening with the United Arab Emirates v Bahrain Group A game in Abu Dhabi (link).

Goal Scoring at in the Women’s Football Tournament in #Rio2016

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Introduction

I have a record of 66 goals scored at the Women’s Olympic Football Tournament in Rio 2016. This total does not include goals scored in penalty shoot outs.

My data are curated here.

As with other tournaments, I have recorded when goals are scored and have grouped these in time intervals. I use 15 minute segments of time as these correspond with extra time periods.

Some goals are scored in time added on at the end of each half of a game. I am mindful of these goals and note them in my record of the game.

When Were Goals Scored?

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Three of the Stage Two games were decided by penalty shoot outs (Sweden v USA; Brazil v Australia; Sweden v Brazil). No goals were scored in extra time in these games.

Goal Scorers

The goal scorers (with links to their FIFA profile) in the Tournament were:

Goal Game Scorer Country Time
1 1 Nilla Fischer Sweden 76
2 2 Janine Beckie Canada 1
3 2 Christine Sinclair Canada 80
4 3 Monica Brazil 36
5 3 Andressa Alves Brazil 59
6 3 Cristiane Brazil 90
7 4 Sara Dabritz Germany 22
8 4 Alexandra Popp Germany 36
9 4 Kudakwashe Basopo Zimbabwe 50
10 4 Melanie Behringer Germany 53
11 4 Melanie Behringer Germany 78
12 4 Melanie Leupolz Germany 83
13 4 Eunice Chibanda (OG) Germany 90
14 5 Carli Lloyd USA 9
15 5 Alex Morgan USA 46
16 6 Carolina Arias (OG) France 2
17 6 Eugenie Le Sommer France 14
18 6 Camile Abily France 42
19 6 Amel Majri France 82
Goal Game Scorer Country Time
20 7 Janine Beckie Canada 7
21 7 Christine Sinclair Canada 19
22 7 Janine Beckie Canada 35
23 7 Mavis Chirandu Zimbabwe 86
24 8 Carli Lloyd USA 63
25 9 Samantha Kerr Australia 6
26 9 Caitlin Foord Australia 45
27 9 Sara Dabritz Germany 45+2
28 9 Saskia Bartusiak Germany 88
29 10 Yasha Gu China 45+1
30 10 Ruyin Tan China 87
31 11 Amber Hearn New Zealand 31
32 12 Beatriz Brazil 21
33 12 Cristiane Brazil 24
34 12 Marta Brazil 44
35 12 Marta Brazil 80
36 12 Beatriz Brazil 86
37 12 Lotta Schelin Sweden 89
Goal Game Scorer Country Time
38 13 Lisa De Vanna Australia 2
39 13 Claire Polkinghorne Australia 15
40 13 Alanna Kennedy Australia 37
41 13 Kyah Simon Australia 50
42 13 Michelle Heyman Australia 55
43 13 Michelle Heyman Australia 66
44 13 Emmaculate Msipa Zimbabwe 90+1
45 14 Melanie Behringer Germany 13
46 14 Melissa Tancredi Canada 26
47 14 Melissa Tancredi Canada 60
48 15 Eugenie Le Sommer France 38
49 15 Louisa Cadamuro France 63
50 15 Louisa Cadamuro France 91
51 16 Catalina Usme Colombia 26
52 16 Crystal Dunn USA 41
53 16 Mallory Pugh USA 60
54 16 Catalina Usme Colombia 90
Goal Game Scorer Country Time
55 17 Stina Blackstenius Sweden 61
56 17 Alex Morgan USA 77
57 18 Melanie Behringer Germany 76
58 19 Sophie Schmidt Canada 56
59 22 Melanie Behringer Germany 21
60 22 Sara Dabritz Germany 59
61 23 Deanne Rose Canada 25
62 23 Christine Sinclair Canada 52
63 23 Beatriz Brazil 79
64 24 Dzsenifer Marozsan Germany 48
65 24 Linda Sembrant (OG) Germany 62
66 24 Stina Blackstenius Sweden 67

This table includes four goals that were scored in time added on at the end of each half (2 in the first half and two in the second half).

Scoring The First Goal

In the Group Games, the team that scored first did not lose in 15 of the 16 games played. Two of these 15 games were draws (Australia v Germany and Colombia v USA). The only team to score first and lose was Germany v Canada.

In Stage Two, the team that scored first did not lose any of the 6 games played. Sweden drew with the USA after scoring first but won the game in a penalty shoot out.

FIFA Ranking

Sweden (ranked 6th) and Canada (ranked 10th) were the two teams that played above their FIFA rankings in this Tournament.

Photo Credit

Asllani and Schelin make a secret sign? (Blondinrikard Fröberg, CC BY 2.0)

Women’s Olympic Football Tournament 2016: Round 2 Group Games

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Introduction

Games in Round 2 of the Women’s Olympic Football Tournament in Rio were completed on 6 August.

The schedule of games can be found here.

I am aggregating some of the data from the tournament in this Google Sheet.

Secondary Data

I am collecting data from the FIFA website. I am making the assumption that the data shared there provide a record of fact assured by FIFA.

I am interested in:

  • When goals are scored.
  • Performance compared to FIFA ranking.
  • The team that scores the first goal.
  • The discipline of each team (cards received).

Goals Scored Round 2

There were 18 goals scored in the six games of Round 2 of the tournament.

The scorers were:

R2 Goals

My Google Sheet has hyperlinks to information about each goalscorer.

Time Intervals

I am using fifteen minute time intervals to record when goals are scored in the tournament. I am mindful of the issue of additional time after 45 and 90 minutes and how these might be accounted. For the purposes of this tournament I will note any goals scored in time added on at the end of each half. (In Round 2, Sara Dabritz (Germany) scored her goal at 45+2 in the game against Australia. Yasha Gu (China) scored her goal at 45+1 in the game against South Africa.)

In Round 2, the profile of goals scored was:

R2 Time

FIFA Ranking and Scoring First

Five of the six games in Round 2 were won by the team scoring first. Australia scored first against Germany and drew the game.

The higher FIFA ranked team won four of the six games played in Round 2. Germany (FIFA rank 2) drew with Australia (5). Brazil (8) defeated Sweden (6).

The FIFA rankings of the teams in the tournament are:

Ranking

Discipline

There were 14 yellow cards given by referees in Round 2.   There was one straight red card for Abby Erceg of New Zealand in the 88th minute of the game against Colombia.

Photo Credit

Olympic Stadium (FIFA Women’s world Cup, Twitter)