European Football 2018-2019: week 1 in the EPL, Ligue 1 and Eredivisie

The first weekend of games in the 2018-2019 season were played in the Premier League, Ligue 1 and the Eredivisie.

I was keen to learn how my naive priors for game outcomes fared in the excitement of the first week of the season in England, France and the Netherlands in the 29 games played.


The priors and posteriors for four game outcomes (n = 10 games):

The differences in these outcomes:

For home and away outcomes:

Ligue 1

Four game outcomes (n = 10 games):


Four game outcomes (n = 9 games):

Scoring First and Not Losing

I am interested in the impact of the first goal scored in a game. Based on last season’s competitions, my priors for scoring first and not losing in the EPL, Ligue 1 and the Eredivise are 0.81, 0.83, and 0.78 respectively. After week 1, the relationship is:

There were no games in the EPL in which the team scored first lost.

In Ligue 1 there were two games in which the team scored first lost: Rennes v Lille (Rennes the away team, Lille equalised in 2 minutes); Montpellier v Dijon (Montpellier the home team, Dijon equalised after 47 minutes). There was one game in the Eredivisie in which the team scored first and lost: Zwolle v Heerenveen (Zwolle the home team, Heerenveen equalised in 4 minutes).

Photo Credits

Leroy Sane (Twitter)

Gianluigi Buffon (Twitter)

AZAlkmaar (Twitter)

Six European Football Leagues Going into Christmas 2017

I have been following scoring patterns in six European football leagues (EPL, Ligue 1, Bundesliga, Serie A, Eredivisie and Primera) in the 2017-2018 season.

I have a particular interest in the outcome of scoring first and not losing in games in these leagues.

Prior to midweek games on 13 December 2017, the range of my data (n=875 games) thus far is:

In Ligue 1, the % of games in which the team that has scored first and not lost has ranged between 86% and 89%. In Serie A, the range is 72% to 80%. The other four leagues fit between these two leagues.

My BoxplotR visualisation of nine observations for these leagues is:

The box plot statistics are:

The EPL is about to enter an intense fixture period and I will be interested to observe any changes in pattern.

A separate project is to examine the games in which the team that scores first has lost (n=96 of the 875 games played). The Eredivisie has the largest number of these games (n=23 out of 134 games) and the Primera the smallest number (n=12 out of 150 games).

Photo Credit

Marco Verratti (PSG Officiel, Twitter)

Fireworks (AjaxDaily, Twitter)