One of my particular interests in monitoring European football leagues (link), is the identification of dominant game winning performances.
Liverpool demonstrated what I term Type A behaviour in their opening English Premier League performance against Norwich (link).
My data are:
Time of Goals
The scoring of two goals in 19 minutes meant for me that the probability of Liverpool not losing at that point was in the order of 0.992. In the preceding EPL season only three teams in 380 games had given up a 2v0 lead and lost. When the third goal went in after 28 minutes, I had no example of a team losing 0v3 and winning.
I am delighted that the first game of the 2019-2020 season has given me a benchmark, Type A example to consider. I do note that it was a Liverpool home game against a promoted team.
Exactly the fertile ground for Type A expression if a team is serious about its title credentials.
I was keen to learn how my naive priors for game outcomes fared in the excitement of the first week of the season in England, France and the Netherlands in the 29 games played.
The priors and posteriors for four game outcomes (n = 10 games):
The differences in these outcomes:
For home and away outcomes:
Four game outcomes (n = 10 games):
Four game outcomes (n = 9 games):
Scoring First and Not Losing
I am interested in the impact of the first goal scored in a game. Based on last season’s competitions, my priors for scoring first and not losing in the EPL, Ligue 1 and the Eredivise are 0.81, 0.83, and 0.78 respectively. After week 1, the relationship is:
There were no games in the EPL in which the team scored first lost.
In Ligue 1 there were two games in which the team scored first lost: Rennes v Lille (Rennes the away team, Lille equalised in 2 minutes); Montpellier v Dijon (Montpellier the home team, Dijon equalised after 47 minutes). There was one game in the Eredivisie in which the team scored first and lost: Zwolle v Heerenveen (Zwolle the home team, Heerenveen equalised in 4 minutes).
I have been following scoring patterns in six European football leagues (EPL, Ligue 1, Bundesliga, Serie A, Eredivisie and Primera) in the 2017-2018 season.
I have a particular interest in the outcome of scoring first and not losing in games in these leagues.
Prior to midweek games on 13 December 2017, the range of my data (n=875 games) thus far is:
In Ligue 1, the % of games in which the team that has scored first and not lost has ranged between 86% and 89%. In Serie A, the range is 72% to 80%. The other four leagues fit between these two leagues.
The EPL is about to enter an intense fixture period and I will be interested to observe any changes in pattern.
A separate project is to examine the games in which the team that scores first has lost (n=96 of the 875 games played). The Eredivisie has the largest number of these games (n=23 out of 134 games) and the Primera the smallest number (n=12 out of 150 games).