Elo ratings at #FIFAWWC 2019

The 2019 Women’s World Cup has concluded in France with the USA’s victory over the Netherlands in the final (link).

39 of the 52 games played were won by the higher Elo rated team. In the Group Stage, there were five games that were lost by the higher rated team:

  • Australia v Italy
  • Korea Republic v Nigeria
  • New Zealand v Cameroon
  • Canada v Netherlands
  • Thailand v Chile

Scotland drew 3v3 with Argentina. There were two 0v0 draws: Argentina v Japan; Spain v China PR.

In the Kockout Stage, there were five games lost by the higher Elo rated team:

  • Australia v Norway
  • Canada v Sweden
  • Japan v Netherlands
  • Germany v Sweden
  • England v Sweden

Photo Credit

Penalty (FIFA)

The day of the 2014 FIFA World Cup Final

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Today is Final day at the 2014 FIFA World Cup.

A month ago, I wrote a post for The Conversation here in Australia. It was titled World Cup 2014 Predictions: who will take the title?

I indicated that many of the predictions pre-World Cup pointed to a Brazil v Argentina World Cup Final.

Germany’s success against Brazil gave me a new favourite to consider.

I wrote about the relative merits of Germany and Argentina in another post for The Conversation.

This evening I have read Simon Gleave and Infostrada’s take on the Final. They observe:

The 2014 World Cup final is impossible to call on the basis of the Infostrada Sports Forecast model which assesses Argentina’s chance as 49.97% and Germany’s as 50.03% to be World Champion. These odds fittingly make the World Cup final the most closely matched fixture of the 64 played in this tournament.

Germany and Argentina were ranked third and fourth respectively in the World Football Elo Ratings coming into the World Cup. They were separated by just 57 ratings points.

Germany is one of nine teams at the World Cup that has scored first against a higher Elo Ratings team and won (in their semi-final against Brazil). I see this as an important indicator of performance potential.

My feeling is that the greater experience of the German team (three players with over 100 international caps) is a very telling factor. I think the 260 international caps difference between the two starting teams in their respective semi-finals is an important consideration. I am mindful too that Germany beat Argentina in the quarter-final of the 2010 World Cup (there are 9 German players from that game and 8 Argentinian players in the 2014 Final).

The converging of the teams for me comes about if Lionel Messi and Javier Mascherano combine to create a game on Argentina’s terms.

On balance, I do think this is Germany’s Final.

I am staying up to see the outcome early morning Australian time (after a warm up with a mountain stage of the Tour de France).

 

Goals Scored in the 2014 FIFA World Cup

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Total Number of Goals Scored

171 goals were scored in 64 games at the 2014 World Cup.

65 goals in the First Half and 98 goals in the Second Half of games.

8 goals were scored in Extra Time.

Information about Group games here.

Information about Knockout games here.

Information about Penalty Shoot Outs here.

Scoring First

The team that has scored first has won forty-three of the fifty-seven games played in which goals have been scored. There have been seven 0-0 drawn games: Game 13, Iran v Nigeria: Game 17, Brazil v Mexico; Game 23, Japan v Greece; Game 40, Costa Rica v England; Game 42, Ecuador v France; Game 59, Netherlands v Costa Rica; Game 62, Netherlands v Argentina. There have been three 1v1 drawn game, Game 16, Russia v Korea Republic; Game 48, Algeria v Russia; Game 49, Brazil v Chile. There have been two 2v2 drawn games. (Germany v Ghana; USA v Portugal).

The team that has scored first has not lost in forty-nine of the sixty-four games played.

Elo Ratings

Thirty-four higher Elo Ratings teams have scored first and won (Mexico v Cameroon; Chile v Australia; Colombia v Greece; France v Honduras; Argentina v Bosnia & Herzegovina; Germany v Portugal; USA v Ghana; Netherlands v Australia; Croatia v Cameroon; Colombia v Cote d’Ivoire; France v Switzerland; Argentina v Iran; Belgium v Russia; Netherlands v Chile; Spain v Australia; Brazil v Cameroon; Mexico v Croatia; Uruguay v Italy; Colombia v Japan; Greece v Cote d’Ivoire; Argentina v Nigeria; Bosnia & Herzegovina v Iran; Switzerland v Honduras; Portugal v Ghana; Germany v USA; Belgium v Korea Republic; Colombia v Uruguay; France v Nigeria; Germany v Algeria; Argentina v Switzerland; Germany v France; Brazil v Colombia; Argentina v Belgium; Germany v Argentina).

Two higher Elo Ratings teams scored first and lost (Spain v Netherlands; Uruguay v Costa Rica).

Four higher Elo Ratings teams scored first and drew (Germany v Ghana; Portugal v USA; Russia v Algeria; Brazil v Chile).

Seven higher Elo Ratings teams  have drawn 0-0 with lower Ratings teams (Iran v Nigeria; Brazil v Mexico; Greece v Japan; England v Costa Rica; France v Ecuador; Netherlands v Costa Rica; Argentina v Netherlands).

Nine lower Elo Ratings teams scored the first goal of the game and won (Italy v England; Chile v Spain; Uruguay v England; Costa Rica v Italy; Nigeria v Bosnia & Herzegovina; Algeria v Korea Republic; Belgium v USA; Germany v Brazil; Netherlands v Brazil).

Two lower Elo Ratings teams scored the first goal of the game and drew (Korea Republic v Russia; Costa Rica v Greece)).

Six lower Elo Ratings teams have scored the first goal of the game and lost (Croatia v Brazil; Japan v Cote d’Ivoire; Ecuador v Switzerland; Algeria v Belgium; Honduras v Ecuador; Mexico v Netherlands).

Photo Credit

Valeu Brazil (Thomas, CC BY 2.0)