#AC2015 Performance Against Elo Ratings in 32 Games

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The Asian Cup 2015 concluded yesterday evening in Sydney.

The Final was the thirty-second game of the Tournament.

I looked at the performance of teams in these 32 games in relation to their Elo Ratings.

Higher Elo rated teams won 24 of the 32 games played at the Tournament. Of these:

  • 22 higher rated teams scored first and won their games.

22

  • 2 higher rated teams did not score first and won their games

2

  • 8 Higher Elo rated teams lost to lower rated teams in the Tournament

Of these eight games, DPR Korea (v Saudi Arabia), Uzbekistan (v China) and Iran (v Iraq) scored first and lost. Iran lost to Iraq in a penalty shoot out.

The five games where a lower Elo rated team scored first and won were:

5

UAE defeated Japan in a penalty shoot out.

The data I used for this post can be found here.

Photo Credit

DSC_0188 (Joshua Sadli, CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

#AC2015: Goals Scored and Performance Against Elo Ratings

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Introduction

The Asian Cup 2015 concluded this evening with Australia’s win in extra time against Korea Republic.

85 goals were scored in the Tournament (61 in Group Games and 24 in Knockout Games).

My record of the goals can be found here.

When Goals Were Scored

I monitored when goals were scored during the Tournament. I used 15 minute intervals to do this.

In the Group Games the pattern was:

QFAC

In the Knockout Games:

KOAC

Elo Ratings

I looked at the performance of teams at the Asian Cup 2015 in relation to their Elo Ratings.

Higher Elo rated teams won 24 of the 32 games played at the Tournament.

22 higher rated teams scored first and won their games. There were two games in which the higher rated team did not score first but did win the game (Australia v Kuwait, UAE v Qatar).

Of the eight games lost by higher Elo rated teams, DPR Korea (v Saudi Arabia), Uzbekistan (v China) and Iran (v Iraq) scored first and lost. There were five games where a lower Elo rated team scored first and won (including the win for Korea in the Group Game against Australia).

Photo Credit

Screen Grab from the Match Centre of the Official Website.

Quarter Final Penalty Shoot Outs at #AC2015

Introduction

Two of the four quarter finals at the 2015 Asian Cup Tournament were decided by penalty shoot outs.

Both shoot outs were won by teams with a lower Elo Rating than their opponents: Iraq (v Iran); UAE (v Japan).

Iraq and the UAE took the second penalties in their games.

Iraq v Iran

Iraq5

The sequence of penalties in this game was:

IIPSO

An AFC video of the shoot out is available here. The Iraq penalties 5 and 8 appear to be good examples of goalkeeper dependent penalties.

UAE v Japan

UAE17

The sequence of penalties in this game was:

UAEJPSO

An AFC video of the shoot out is available here. The first UAE penalty appears to be another example of a goalkeeper dependent penalty.

Photo Credits

Frame grabs from AFC videos (Iraq, UAE)