Medal Predictions: 2012 Olympic Games

In February the Australian Olympic Committee published its medal predictions for the London Olympic Games.

The predictions were based on data from 2010.

In March USA Today published its medal tracker for London.

Its tracker projects the winners in each medal event for the 2012 London Olympics, based on an algorithm that monitors athletes’ performances leading up to the Games. The table is update once a month.

The April 2011 update is:

The USA Today Tracker uses data from Infostrada Sports and points out that the Tracker “is a measure of best current performances rather than a reliable predictor of medal winners”.

Infostrada Sports has a number of statistical packages to offer clients. One of them, Podium Manager, contains data on more than 200,000 athletes over 100 years of sports history and has a detailed focus on the last Olympic cycle. Infostrada Sports provides data on all 302 Olympic disciplines. Its mission is to “create explicit value by delivering sports data and SPORTS INTELLIGENCE to triple A clients on global sports, digitally, anywhere, anytime, on any platform, in any language, as it happens, up-to-date all the time”.

The USA Today Tracker offers viewers the option of rank by country or sport. This is an example of the April 2011 rank for the Men’s Individual Time Trial:


For other blog posts about medal predictions and projections for London, please use this link.

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Construction Time Again

Predicting Medal Outcomes at the 2012 Olympic Games

Yesterday the Australian Olympic Committee (AOC) announced its predictions for medal outcomes at the 2012 Olympic Games.


A statement on the AOC website notes:

  • Australia is still aiming for a top five finish on the overall medal tally at next year’s London Olympics despite slipping to eighth position on the latest Benchmark analysis of Olympic sports.
  • The top three nations on the overall medal tally are streets ahead of the rest with Russia 97 medals, USA 94 and China 93. Great Britain is fourth with 48 medals followed by Germany 47, France 45 and Japan 43. Australia is eighth on 42 medals.
  • The study is based on results from World Championships, World Cups and other major international events held in 2010. In the case of swimming and athletics which did not have world championships in 2010 it is based on performances achieved internationally over the year.
  • Out of the 42 medals won or credited in 2010, cycling won six, track and field four, sailing four, rowing four and diving three. Swimming which traditionally wins the bulk of Australia’s medals finished with 14. At the 2008 Beijing Olympics our swimmers won 20 medals out of a total of 46.
  • Australia finished fourth on the overall medal tally at the Sydney 2000 Games with 58 medals. We were fourth again in Athens in 2004 with 49 medals.

The AOC has provided information about the 2010 Benchmark Assumptions.

It has provided a 2010 Benchmark Medal Results Table too.

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Olympic Park Walk