When will goals be scored in the group games at #AsianCup2019?

The group games are about to start at the 2019 Asian Cup football tournament (link).

I have used goal scoring data from the group games of the previous two Asian Cup tournaments to derive some naive priors for when goals will be scored in the group stage of the tournament.

It will be interesting to see the early trends in goal scoring. The previous goal scoring patterns (2015, 2011) were:

My data from goal scoring in 2015 and 2011 are:

Time Interval20152011
0-15 minutes0.100.19
16-30 minutes0.130.17
31-45 minutes0.250.19
46-60 minutes0.160.14
61-75 minutes0.160.11
76-90 minutes0.200.21

Elo ratings and FIFA rankings prior to #AsianCup2019

The most recent Elo World Football Ratings were published on 3 January 2019 (link) and the FIFA Rankings on 20 December 2018 (link).

At the start of the 2019 Asian Cup (link), the ratings and rankings of the teams in the competition are:

TeamEloFIFA
Iran1929
South Korea2353
Australia3541
Japan3650
Syria5874
Uzbekistan6095
Saudi Arabia6269
Iraq6388
Oman7482
Qatar7793
China8076
UA Emirates8579
Lebanon9181
Jordan97109
Bahrain99113
North Korea100109
Palestine11299
Thailand113118
Vietnam124100
Kyrgyzstan14091
Turkmenistan150127
India15597
Yemen164135
Philippines169116

In the 2015 Asian Cup tournament, the performances against Elo ratings were:

  • Higher Elo rated team scores first and wins: 22 games (69% of games played)
  • Higher Elo rated team does not score first and wins: 2 games (6%)
  • Higher Elo rated team scores first and loses: 3 games (9%)
  • Higher Elo rated team does not score first and loses: 5 games (16%)

I am going to monitor performance against Elo rating in 2019 and will start with these naive priors:

  • 0.69 Higher Elo rated team scores first and wins
  • 0.75 Higher Elo rated team wins
  • 0.25 Higher Elo rated team loses

The tournament starts this evening with the United Arab Emirates v Bahrain Group A game in Abu Dhabi (link).

#AsianCup2019

The 2019 Asian Cup starts on 5 January with the opening game of the tournament between the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain (link to fixtures).

I have a number of posts about the 2015 tournament held in Australia (link) and the 2011 tournament held in Qatar (link).

I am looking forward to blogging about the tournament and exploring some probabilities about performance.

Photo Credit

Hunter Stadium (Danny Palmer, CC BY-NC 2.0)