The group games are about to start at the 2019 Asian Cup football tournament (link).
I have used goal scoring data from the group games of the previous two Asian Cup tournaments to derive some naive priors for when goals will be scored in the group stage of the tournament.
It will be interesting to see the early trends in goal scoring. The previous goal scoring patterns (2015, 2011) were:
My data from goal scoring in 2015 and 2011 are:
The most recent Elo World Football Ratings were published on 3 January 2019 (link) and the FIFA Rankings on 20 December 2018 (link).
At the start of the 2019 Asian Cup (link), the ratings and rankings of the teams in the competition are:
In the 2015 Asian Cup tournament, the performances against Elo ratings were:
- Higher Elo rated team scores first and wins: 22 games (69% of games played)
- Higher Elo rated team does not score first and wins: 2 games (6%)
- Higher Elo rated team scores first and loses: 3 games (9%)
- Higher Elo rated team does not score first and loses: 5 games (16%)
I am going to monitor performance against Elo rating in 2019 and will start with these naive priors:
- 0.69 Higher Elo rated team scores first and wins
- 0.75 Higher Elo rated team wins
- 0.25 Higher Elo rated team loses
The tournament starts this evening with the United Arab Emirates v Bahrain Group A game in Abu Dhabi (link).
The 2019 Asian Cup starts on 5 January with the opening game of the tournament between the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain (link to fixtures).
I have a number of posts about the 2015 tournament held in Australia (link) and the 2011 tournament held in Qatar (link).
I am looking forward to blogging about the tournament and exploring some probabilities about performance.
Hunter Stadium (Danny Palmer, CC BY-NC 2.0)