Shots and Goals: Quality, Expectations and Context (2)

I mentioned earlier this week that I have been working on a shot quality and expected goals project.

I have finished a first draft of a bibliography. Link.

I am mindful that this is not a complete bibliography. Many of the references were acquired through recommendations in the literature I had found. I hope that in this open document there can be ongoing inclusion of references.

My summary of these references extends the bibliography. Link.

As I was writing the summary, I found myself asking what Charles Reep would think about this work.

I have compiled some information about the data he collected. Link.

This is my secondary analysis of some of the data shared by Charles Reep and Bernard Benjamin in their 1968 paper.

1953-1954 Wolverhampton Wanderers

First Division Champions. Won 25, Drew 7 and lost 10. Goals for 96, goals against 56, goal average 1.71.

Sheffield Wednesday 1955-1956

Sheffield Wednesday were Champions of the Second Division. Won 21, drew 13 and lost 8. Goals for 101, goals against 62, goal average 1.63.

Sheffield Wednesday 1956-1957

14th in the First Division.  Won 16, drew 6 and lost 20. Goals for 82, goals against 88, goal average 0.93.

Sheffield Wednesday 1957-1958

Sheffield Wednesday finished in 22nd in the League and were relegated. The only team not to win away from home all season. Won 12, drew 7 and lost 23. Goals for 69, goals against 92, goal average 0.75.

Tottenham Hotspur 1960-1961

First Division Champions. Won 31, Drew 4 and lost 7. Goals for 115, goals against 55, goal average 2.09.

Tottenham Hotspur 1961-1962

Third in First Division. Won 21, Drew 10 and lost 11. Goals for 88, goals against 69, goal average 1.28.

Arsenal 1961-1962

Arsenal finished 10th in the League. At home 9 wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats, goals for 39, goals against 31. Away games 7 wins, 5 draws, 9 defeats, goals for 32, goals against 41, goal average 0.99.

Burnley 1961-1962

Second in First Division. Won 21, Drew 11 and lost 10. Goals for 101, goals against 67, goal average 1.51.

Coventry City 1962-1963

4th in the Third Division. Won 18, Drew 17 and lost 11. Goals for 83, goals against 69, goal average 1.20.

Tottenham Hotspur 1962-1963

Second in First Division. Won 23, Drew 9 and lost 10. Goals for 111, goals against 62, goal average 1.79.

The 1968 paper uses data gathered by hand notation in 578 matches from 1953 to 1967.

Photo Credit

Untended Goal (gfpeck, CC BY-ND 2.0)

Shots and Goals: Quality, Expectations and Context

I have been reviewing the literature on shots and goals in ice hockey and association football.

In doing so, I am mindful of Ted Knutson’s (2013) observation:

The soccer analytics community is currently growing by leaps and bounds, which means that there’s new information being processed almost every single day. It also means that there are tons of new people interested in the topic, and figuring out who to read or where to go can be a bit daunting at first.

I have compiled a bibliography that covers 2004 to 2017. Link.

It is incomplete but extends to twelve pages. It is a Google Doc so I will continue to update it. One of my problems in researching the literature was my inability to access some of the ice hockey articles.

I ended up on this landing page a number of times:

I have included the references in my list and apologise for the lack of access. I could not find the posts archived or curated anywhere else.

I have started to compile a synthesis of the literature. This is another ongoing Google Doc project. Link.

Many years ago, I pursued the coaching connections between association football and field hockey. I was inspired by Horst Wein.

In locating conversations about quality and expectations of shots and goals in association football, I have looked more closely than I have previously at the ice hockey literature. I found the quality of writing and insights shared profoundly interesting. I particularly liked the idea that many of the writers used pseudonyms, including the exotic Vic Ferrari.

In a desire to create an open educational resource from this review, I have created a Google Doc to offer a partial introduction to football analytics. Link.

At the heart of the resource is a discussion about Lex Immers.

I was only able to access Michiel De Hoog’s (2014) post because of Erica Moore’s (2016) translation of the original Dutch article.

Erica’s open sharing reaffirmed for me not only the delights of open sharing but also the vibrancy of the football analytics literature.

I am keen to develop these resources and would welcome any guidance a remarkable community of practice can offer.

Photo Credit

Peter Whittingham Scores From the Freekick (John Candy)

1937 Back Pass

Last year, thanks to Jurryt van de Vooren and Simon Gleave, I was introduced to what was thought to be the earliest example of football statistics. The game was played on 20 June 1937.

Simon’s forensic skills have come up with an earlier example from a game played at the Olympic Stadium in Berlin, Germany on Sunday 3 January 1937.

The statistics are from the final of the national Tschammerpokal 1936 competition played between VfB Leipzig and FC Schalke 04. VfB Leipzig won 2v1 with all three goals scored in the first half (1:0 Jacob May (20), 2:0 Herbert Gabriel (31), 2:1 Ernst Kalwitzki (42)). The referee was Egon Zacher who officiated games in Germany from 1935 to 1952.

News of the 1937 statistics appeared on a Deutscher Fussball-Bund’s news page about the 2017 Cup competition and the availability of the DFB-Pokal-App to explore performance data.

The 1937 data:

There is a very short film (18 seconds) of the game:

An English Wikipedia entry has a picture of the match program:

There is a detailed German Wikipedia entry about the 1936 competition. In the match report there is this sentence “Der VfB verzichtete auf jede Effekthascherei und ließ nach englischer Art den Ball laufen”. This appears to be a comparison between VfB’s second half pattern of play and an English approach to playing the game.

Kicker has information about the teams. Of the players listed, ten of the eleven Schalke players have Wikipedia entries:

Hermann Mellage, Hans Bornemann, Otto Schweisfurth, Rudolf Gellesch, Hermann Nattkämper, Otto Tibulski, Ernst Kalwitzki, Fritz Szepan, Ernst Poertgen, Ernst Kuzorra. Ernst Kuzorra was the captain of the team. The only Schalke player without a Wikipedia entry is Ernst Sotnow. The trainer, Hans Schmidt, has a page.

The German Wikipedia page about the game has one link to a VfB Leipzig player, Rudolf Grosse. This is incorrect. It is a link to a sociolinguist with the same name. He would have been 13 at the time of the final. Kicker has a date of birth for Rudolf as 25 August 1910.

Kicker provides dates of birth for 8 of the VfB Leipzig team and all of the FC Schalke 04 team. These data give the median age of VfB as 26.5 years ((range 20 to 30) and Schalke at 24 (range 18 to 31). Bruno Waller, the VfB goalkeeper, won the cup on his birthday.

If the start of the birth year was 1 January for German football, then the places in birth year for both teams at the time of the final were:

I am delighted Simon is on the case. I had better start scanning pre-1937.

Photo Credit

FC Shalke 04 (YouTube frame grab)

Postscript

The Weltfussball page for the game.