#AFLW 2019: What kind of final?

Adelaide will play Carlton in the 2019 AFLW Grand Final (link) at the Adelaide Oval on Sunday, 31 March.

I have been collecting secondary data of points scoring from the official AFLW site (link) and have been thinking about what kind of final we might have.

I am particularly interested in the robustness of median performance profiles and the possibility of estimating some naive priors.

Points Scoring

Points Conceding

Points Difference


The data include naive priors for performance in the Final in attack and defence with which to monitor each team’s tactical response to opponent and within game adaptation.



Photo Credit

Adelaide Oval (Gabriella Marchant, Twitter)

#AFLW Regular Season 2019

Tayla Harris photographed by Michael Wilson

The #AFLW regular season concluded last weekend. I have been collecting secondary data about the season from the AFLW web site (link).

Median Profiles:

Box plot comparisons (using BoxPlotR (link)):

Centre lines show the medians. Box limits indicate the 25th and 75th percentiles. Whiskers extend 1.5 times the interquartile range from the 25th and 75th percentiles. Outliers are represented by dots.

This is my third season of collecting performance information from the official AFLW website. I have been struck by the increasing amount of coverage given to the tournament and the quality of the media images being shared.

This post is headed by Michael Wilson‘s photograph of Tayla Harris. I think it is a wonderful picture and speaks to the athleticism of AFLW.

#AFLW 2019

The 2019 AFLW season starts on Saturday with the opening game between Geelong and Collingwood (link to fixtures).

I have some data from last year’s regular season (link) curated as secondary data from the official AFLW web site (link).

Median Profiles

A Violin Plot created with BoxPlotR (link). (W1Q is the winning team, L1Q is the losing team).

Plot information

These data have given me an opportunity to postulate some naive priors about when points will be scored in the 2019 season. The probabilities per quarter are based upon game outcome so that the labels ‘winning’ and ‘losing’ relate to the game not the quarter.