The AFLW 2018 Grand Final was played on Saturday at Ikon Park, Carlton. Western Bulldogs defeated Brisbane 27 v 21.
My record of the final compared to the median season profile of winners and losers is:
Earlier this week, I had a look at the kind of final it might be. I thought the important game response from Brisbane was to contain the Western Bulldogs in the second quarter and then lift in the third quarter. Brisbane led at half time and held the Western Bulldogs to 0 in the second quarter.
It was the Bulldogs who lifted in the third quarter and scored 19 unanswered points. Brisbane countered in the fourth quarter but ended up one goal short of a tied game.
In my Grand Final scenarios using median profiles, a Western Bulldogs win was suggested as 4 points.
Grand Final Day rain (Justina Ashman, Twitter)
Final Quarter (Sam Mostyn, Twitter)
The 2018 AFLW season concludes this weekend with the Grand Final between the Western Bulldogs and the Brisbane Lions.
I have used both teams’ seven games to identify a median profile of their performances and their opponents in the regular season.
Western Bulldogs and Brisbane
Western Bulldogs win, game score approximates to 41 v 37 median profile (Western Bulldogs dominate first half, Brisbane lift second half).
Brisbane win, game score approximates to 30 v 16 median profile (strong second quarter defence sets up second half game control for Brisbane).
The score in round 2 when the teams met was 33 v 24 to the Western Bulldogs. (Half time score was 26 v 3.)
Frame grab (AFL website)
My record of the 2018 AFLW season point scoring after the conclusion of the regular season is:
I have excluded the drawn game between GWS and Adelaide. The winning teams are in light blue and the losing teams are in light green.
The visualisation and data matrix for this box plot is provided by BoxPlotR:
The box plot description for figure legend:
Center lines show the medians; box limits indicate the 25th and 75th percentiles as determined by R software; whiskers extend 1.5 times the interquartile range from the 25th and 75th percentiles, outliers are represented by dots; data points are plotted as open circles. n = 27 sample points.