#AsianCup2019 after 24 games

The second round of group games at the 2019 Asian Cup (link) concluded with Uzbekistan’s 4v0 defeat of Turkmenistan in Group F (link).

In the 24 games played:

  • The team that scored first has not lost in 20 of these games.
  • The higher Elo rated team has not lost in 20 games.
  • The four higher Elo rated teams that have lost are: Thailand (v India); Australia (v Jordan); Bahrain (v Thailand); and Syria (v Jordan).

66 goals have been scored in these 24 games. By time interval, these goals were scored:

A bar chart of the time intervals when the 66 goals in the tournament have been scored.

The pattern of goal scoring in the 24 games compared to some naive priors identified before the tournament is:

A line chart of the comparison between naive priors and posterior outcomes after 24 games.


#AsianCup2019 after 12 games: a look at fouls, yellow cards, goals and referees

Twelve games have been played in the 2019 Asian Cup football tournament (link). I am using the official AFC website for some secondary data analysis.

In this post, I look at some of the data relating to fouls penalised, yellow cards, goals scored and the referees involved.

I have used ggplot2 (link) and ggrepel (link) for some very basic visualisations:

#AsianCup2019 after nine games

Nine games have been played in the 2019 Asian Cup football tournament (link).

Before the tournament, I identified some naive probabilities about when goals would be scored in six time intervals in group games.

After nine games played, the relationship between the priors and posterior outcomes is:

As to what kind of tournament this is in relation to 2011 and 2015, after nine games in 2019 the relationship is:

I am interested in the performance of teams in the tournament with regard to their Elo rating. After 9 games, the higher Elo rated team has not lost 78% of the games played. The two higher Elo rated team to lose were Australia (against Jordan) and Thailand (against India). Australia was rated 35th and Jordan 97th. Thailand 113, India 155.