Exploring probabilities at #WT20 World Cup

There is one game remaining in this year’s Women’s T20 World Cup. Australia will play England in the final at North Sound on 24 November.

I have been looking at some naive probabilities about the partnerships of winning and losing teams.

Before the tournament I had recorded data from ICC T20 games in 2017-2018 (n=58). These enabled me to estimate some prior probabilities before the World Cup started.  I have used the tournament website to collect data from the World Cup in the West Indies (n=20 completed games) to give me a set of posterior outcomes.

Winning Teams

Losing Teams

At this World Cup, winning teams have established their dominance with first wicket partnerships (9 of the 20 games have partnerships > 50 runs). Losing teams have had just two 50 run + opening partnerships. Losing teams have fourth wicket partnerships as an important contribution to their run totals.

At present, the median profiles for runs scored per wicket in the tournament is:

The median winning run total is 137 (range 81 to 194) and median losing total is 99 (range 71 to 160).

Photo Credit

North Sound (CricketHer, Twitter)

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