European Football Season 2018-2019

Six European Leagues

Last season (2017-2018), I followed teams’ performances in 6 European Leagues (EPL, Ligue 1, Bundesliga, Serie A, Eredivisie, and Primera).

The median profile of a European league champion was an 81% win record and 90 goals scored. The median points gap between first and second in these leagues was 15.

The range of win % was from Barcelona (74%) to Manchester City (83%).

Juventus scored the lowest number of goals (84), PSG the most (108).

PSV Eindhoven won the Eredivisie by 4 points, Bayern Munich the Bundesliga by 24.

English Premier League

I have some naive priors for the 2018-2019 season in the EPL.

  • A team scores first and wins = 0.63 (at home 0.42, away 0.21)
  • A team scores first and draws = 0.18 (at home 0.07, away 0.10)
  • A team scores first and does not lose = 0.81
  • A team scores first and loses = 0.11 (at home 0.05, away 0.06)
  • No goals are scored in the game = 0.08

Discussion

My priors have no weights. During the season I will be keen to see how these macro indicators perform. An important indicator for me is scoring first and not losing.

In Europe last year, the figures for the five other leagues were:

  • Primera = 0.84
  • Ligue 1 = 0.83
  • Bundesliga = 0.82
  • Serie A = 0.80
  • Eredivisie = 0.78

My feeling is that the champions in each of the leagues must come from a bandwidth of probability of scoring first and not losing of 0.78 to 0.84.

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