2018 FIFA #WorldCup: end of first round of games

The first round of group games has concluded at the 2018 FIFA World Cup.

38 goals were scored in these 16 games.

Of these:

  • Winning teams scored 24 goals.
  • Losing teams scored 4 goals.
  • There were 10 goals scored in drawn games.

The team that scored first did not lose in these 16 games.

The time intervals when these goals were scored were:

Time Interval

(Minutes)

Winner Losing

Team

Drawn

Game

Totals
0-15 3 0 1 4
16-30 0 0 4 4
31-45 4 2 1 7
46-60 5 0 3 8
61-75 6 1 0 7
76-90 6 1 1 8

I have been following a naive Bayes approach to the probability of scoring in these time intervals.

Time Interval (Minutes) Prior to

Tournament

Posterior after

Round 1

0-15 0.10 0.11
16-30 0.15 0.11
31-45 0.15 0.18
46-60 0.15 0.21
61-75 0.20 0.18
76-90 0.21 0.21

My probability priors for scoring by half (based on 2010 and 2014 World Cup performances) were:

  • Score in first half: 0.40
  • Score in second half: 0.60

My probability posteriors after Round 1 are: 0.36 and 0.64 respectively.

There have been 16 different referees in Round 1. Szymon Marciniak (Poland) is the only referee not to have given a yellow card in a game (Argentina v Iceland). There has been one red card (Carlos Sanchez, Colombia).

The median number of fouls per game in Round 1 was 28. The range of fouls was from 18 to 43.

During the first round of games, the median ball in play time has been 56 minutes (and as a median percentage 58%). The median length of games has been 96 minutes.

Tracking data suggests that three players covered >12000 metres in Round 1: Aleksandr Golovin (12706); Christian Erikson (12262); Iury Gazinsky (12240).

Photo Credit

Japan v Colombia (The Japan Times, Twitter)

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