Naive probability priors for goal scoring at #WorldCupRussia2018

I have some naive prior probability estimates for when goals will be scored at the 2018 FIFA World Cup based on performances in 2014 and 2010.

I am using 15 minute intervals mindful of the additional time added to each half of play.

For the Group games:

IntervalPrior
0-150.10
16-300.15
31-450.15
46-600.15
61-750.20
76-900.25

For the Knockout games:

IntervalPrior
0-150.11
16-300.17
31-450.09
46-600.11
61-750.18
76-900.21
91-1050.05
106-1200.08

Photo Credit

The wait is finally over (@RaheemDanyaro, Twitter)

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