I have some naive prior probability estimates for when goals will be scored at the 2018 FIFA World Cup based on performances in 2014 and 2010.

I am using 15 minute intervals mindful of the additional time added to each half of play.

For the Group games:

Interval Prior
0-15 0.10
16-30 0.15
31-45 0.15
46-60 0.15
61-75 0.20
76-90 0.25

For the Knockout games:

Interval Prior
0-15 0.11
16-30 0.17
31-45 0.09
46-60 0.11
61-75 0.18
76-90 0.21
91-105 0.05
106-120 0.08

Photo Credit

The wait is finally over (@RaheemDanyaro, Twitter)

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.