Momentum Above and Below the Line After AFL Bye Weeks in 2016

Bye

I am still thinking about above the line and below the line after Australia’s recent election campaign.

During and after the election, all eighteen AFL teams had a bye week (starting at Round 13 and ending in Round 15).

I am interested of the impact of the bye week on subsequent performance. My minimalist visualisation (without a legend) is intended to show diverging and converging performances. I have 0 momentum points as the baseline for a team’s performance trajectory.

Six teams (Adelaide, Collingwood, Carlton, St Kilda, Gold Coast and Richmond) have played three games since their bye in Round 13. Of these, Adelaide and Collingwood have won all three games. Carlton has lost all three games.

Six teams (West Coast, Western Bulldogs, Essendon, Sydney, Port Adelaide and Melbourne),  have played two games after their bye in Round 14. West Coast and Western Bulldogs have won both their games. Essendon has lost both games.

Six teams (Hawthorn, Fremantle, North Melbourne, Geelong, GWS and Brisbane) have played one game since their bye in Round 15. Hawthorn is the only team to have won their Round 16 game.

Of the 18 teams, the above the liners are (7 teams):

  • Adelaide (3 momentum points)
  • Collingwood (3)
  • West Coast (2)
  • Western Bulldogs (2)
  • St Kilda (1)
  • Gold Coast (1)
  • Hawthorn (1)

On the liners (3 teams):

  • Sydney (0)
  • Port Adelaide (0)
  • Melbourne (0)

Below the liners (8 teams)

  • Richmond (-1)
  • Fremantle (-1)
  • North Melbourne (-1)
  • Geelong (-1)
  • GWS (-1)
  • Brisbane (-1)
  • Essendon (-2)
  • Carlton (-3)

After bye weeks (and without reference to home/away or strength of opposing team), the patterns for wins and losses were:

One week after the bye: 10 losses, 8 wins

Two weeks after the bye: 5 losses, 7 wins

Three weeks after the bye: 2 losses, 4 wins.

I am looking forward to exploring how this pattern change over the next rounds of the AFL season.

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