The Hawthorn Effect 2013

SatIntroduction

Last weekend, Hawthorn defeated Brisbane in Round 14 of the 2013 AFL Competition.

The win extended Hawthorn’s undefeated run this season to twelve games. Their only loss of the season was in Round 1.

I have been monitoring scoring patterns in the AFL this season and have been interested in particular in scores at the end of each quarter of games. I compare Hawthorn’s winning pattern here with that of the average of winning teams over the whole season. I have compiled the data for Hawthorn’s thirteen games to date by excluding average winning performances for Week 11 which was Hawthorn’s bye week.

Performance Trends

Overall, Hawthorn’s trend against the average whole game winning profile is:

Summary H14

In week 1, Hawthorn lost to Geelong and recorded their lowest points score of the season. Round 6 was Hawthorn’s second lowest score of the season in a win against Adelaide.

By quarter their performance has been:

Q1

In Week 3, Hawthorn scored 13 points in the first quarter – their lowest number of points in a first quarter all season.

Q2

The three below trend second quarter performances were against Adelaide (9 points), Gold Coast (19 points) and Carlton (14 points).

Q3

It is interesting to note the trend in Hawthorn’s third quarter performance from week 4 to week 8; one quarter total of 20 points and three of 21 points. Of interest too is the lift in the team’s third quarter performance after the bye week (week 11).

Q4

Hawthorn scored 51 points against the West Coast Eagles in Round 2 and 23 against the same team in Round 13. The Round 1 total of 16 points is the only time Hawthorn have not scored more than 20 points in the final quarter.

Discussion

Hawthorn lead the AFL ladder after Round 14. As minor premiers last year, they have been very successful in performing to their 2012 ranking. Geelong, currently second on the AFL ladder, are the only team to defeat Hawthorn this season. What is very interesting is the performance of Hawthorn overall and their success in the second half of the season. The bye week does seem to have made a very strong team even stronger.

Photo Credit

Frame grab from Fox Footy Match Centre

4 thoughts on “The Hawthorn Effect 2013”

  1. Thanks for that Keith being an avid Hawks supporter I do enjoy seeing this trend. The fascinating question that come to mind is what tactics can be employed to beat a team with such high forward line potency, a ‘shoot out’ type of approach may not suffice one would suspect.

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