I am following three of the four football codes in Australia in the 2013 season. The three codes are: Australian Rules, Rugby League and Rugby Union. This is my third post about Performance Against Ranking (first post is here).
I am interested in the performance of each team against their ranking in the 2012 season. (Some background information here.) I have a basic notation to monitor trends:
I have indicated whether there is: a home win (HW), home loss (HL), away win (AW) and away loss (AL) in each colour code.
After the Brumbies’ draw against the Kings in Super 15 rugby in Round 8, I have added:
I identify a draw as a losing draw for the higher ranked team and a winning draw for the lower ranked team.
Round 2 of 2013 AFL season was concluded on Sunday.
Week 2 was much less volatile than the opening week of the season. Richmond’s win against St Kilda was the only game in which a lower ranked team won against a higher ranked team. Richmond has defeated two higher ranked opponents thus far this season. St Kilda has lost to two lower ranked teams.
After two weeks of the season, the average winning (and losing) profile is:
First Quarter: 24 points (Loser 19)
Second Quarter: 29 (23)
Third Quarter: 33 (20)
Fourth Quarter: 30 (18)
Game Total: 116 (80)
Round 5 was completed yesterday evening with another victory for the Melbourne Storm.
The Storm and the Rabbitohs have continued their strong starts to the season. There were two wins by lower ranked teams this week. The Sea Eagles defeated the Bulldogs and the Eels defeated the Cronulla Sharks.
There have been eight rounds of the Super 15 Competition to date. Round 8 was a volatile week. Three of last year’s six top ranked teams had byes this week. Two of the other three teams lost to lower ranked teams. There were two significant results in this Round. The Cheetahs defeated the Stormers in Bloemfontein (with a last minute penalty goal) and the Kings drew with the Brumbies in Canberra. The Blues’ win against the Highlanders ended their three game losing run and extended the Highlanders losing run to six games.
One of the important issues for me, in all three football codes, is whether teams can win at home against higher ranked opponents. I think this has enormous implications for a team’s support. Away wins against higher ranked teams are very important too.
This week in the AFL, Richmond won away from home against a higher ranked team, St Kilda. In the NRL, the Eels recovered from a heavy defeat in Round 4 to win at home against the Sharks. The Sea Eagles won away from home against the Bulldogs, last year’s Minor Premiers. In a volatile week in Super 15, the Sharks and the Cheetahs had home wins against higher ranked teams. The Kings drew in Canberra with a converted try after the final siren had sounded.