130402 Performance Against Ranking 2013 Football Season

Introduction

I am following three of the four football codes in Australia in the 2013 season. The three codes are: Australian Rules, Rugby League and Rugby Union. This is my second post about Performance Against Ranking (first post is here).

I am interested in the performance of each team against their ranking in the 2012 season. (Some background information here.) I have a basic notation to monitor trends:

Legend

I have indicated whether there is: a home win (HW), home loss (HL), away win (AW) and away loss (AL) in each colour code.

Australian Rules

Round 1 of 2013 AFL season was concluded on Monday.

AFL R1

It is interesting to see the volatility of Week 1. Sydney and Collingwood played to their 2012 ranking whilst Geelong and Freemantle played above their ranking. Essendon, Richmond, Western Bulldogs had reasons to be happy too.

In Week 1 of the season, the average winning (and losing) profile was:

First Quarter: 22 points (Loser 19)

Second Quarter: 30 (22)

Third Quarter: 33 (16)

Fourth Quarter: 25 (22)

Game Total: 109 (78)

Rugby League

Round 4 was completed yesterday evening with a dominant win by the Roosters over the Eels.

NRL4

The Storm and the Rabbitohs have continued their strong starts to the season. The Knights have had three impressive wins at home against higher ranked teams. The Roosters and Titans have had three consecutive wins. The Bulldogs, the Cowboys and the Raiders have had difficult starts to their seasons.

Rugby Union

There have been seven rounds of the Super 15 Competition to date. The Chiefs are performing to their rankings. The Brumbies have had three wins against higher ranked opponents from 2012 including a Round 7 win after the final siren against the Bulls.  The Crusaders continued their return to winning form with an away win against the 2012 higher ranked Stormers. The blue bottom half of the table indicates that last year’s lower ranked teams are finding it difficult to win. The Highlanders, in particular, are having a tough time at the moment.

S15 07

Discussion

One of the important issues for me, in all three football codes, is whether teams can win at home against higher ranked opponents. I think this has enormous implications for a team’s support. Away wins against higher ranked teams are very important too.

This week in the AFL, Western Bulldogs and Gold Coast Suns had good home wins against higher ranked opponents. Geelong and Richmond both won away from home against higher ranked teams. In the NRL, the Knights and the Warriors had home wins against higher ranked teams. The Dragons and Rabbitohs had important away wins against higher ranked teams. In Super 15, the Brumbies won at home against the Bulls and the Crusaders had an away win in South Africa against the Stormers.

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