I am following three of the four football codes in Australia in the 2013 season. The three codes are: Australian Rules, Rugby League and Rugby Union. I am keeping a record of these codes as a Google Sheet.
I am interested in the performance of each team against their ranking in the 2012 season. (Some background information here.) I have a basic notation to monitor trends:
I have indicated whether there is: a home win (HW), home loss (HL), away win (AW) and away loss (AL) in each colour code.
The 2013 AFL season started last weekend with two games. Both higher ranked teams (Adelaide and West Coast) lost.
Round 3 was completed yesterday evening with a win for a lower ranked team (Newcastle Knights) over a higher ranked team (North Queensland Cowboys). Weeks 1 and 3 of the season have been volatile. Teams playing to (and above) their ranking are: Melbourne Storm, and the Sydney Rabbitohs. The improving teams are the West Tigers and the Newcastle Knights. The Canterbury Bulldogs and the Canberra Raiders have both lost two games to lower ranked opponents.
There have been six rounds of the Super 15 Competition to date. The Chiefs and the Brumbies are performing to their rankings and in the Brumbies case have played above their ranking in two games. The Stormers and the Crusaders have stabilised their rankings after two early defeats for both teams.
In two of the three competitions (Rugby League and Rugby Union) trends are emerging. One of the important issues for me is whether teams can win at home against higher ranked teams. I think this has enormous implications for a team’s support. Away wins against higher ranked teams are very important.
In the AFL, there has been a home win against a higher ranked team (even though it was a local derby) and an away win by a lower ranked team (Essendon).
In Rugby League, there have been eight wins at home by lower ranked teams and just one away win by a lower ranked team (the Cowboys in Week 1).
In Super Rugby, there have been seven home wins by lower ranked teams and three away wins by lower ranked teams (the Blues, the Cheetahs, the Force).